1.32 million lives may be saved yearly by 2040 under ambitious climate action: Study

An ambitious climate action representing a sustainability pathway to improve global air quality could save up to 1.32 million lives per year by 2040, according to a study.

Researchers, led by those at Cardiff University in the UK, said the study shows how developing countries rely upon international cooperation to see benefits, as much of their pollution originates outside their borders.

The “first-of-its-kind” study analysed cross-border pollution “exchanges” for 168 countries, focusing on the impact of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and simulated different future emissions scenarios for the year 2040.

Study findings

Findings published in the journal Nature Communications reveal that a fragmented world, with a little collaboration in climate mitigation policymaking, could result in a greater health inequality for poorer nations that have less control over their own air quality.

“While we know climate action can benefit public health, most research has ignored how this affects the air pollution that travels across international borders and creates inequalities between countries,” lead author Omar Nawaz from Cardiff University’s school of earth and environmental sciences said.

“Our analysis shows how climate mitigation decisions made in wealthy nations directly affect the health of people in the Global South, particularly in Africa and Asia,” Nawaz said.

The researchers used advanced atmospheric modelling and NASA satellite data to simulate different future emissions scenarios for the year 2040.

Health impacts

“We wanted to see how the health benefits of action on climate change could differ when there is greater or weaker global cooperation,” Nawaz said.

“We were surprised to find that although Asia sees the most total benefits from climate action to its large share of the population, African countries are often the most reliant on external action, with the amount of health benefits they get from climate mitigation abroad increasing in fragmented future scenarios,” the lead author said.

The study also projected that the balance of pollution flowing across borders may shift, even when total global air pollution declines.

“These results suggest a need for climate policies that consider how inequalities in transboundary air pollution evolve across distinct socioeconomic trends and mitigation strategies in addition to total co-benefit estimates,” the authors wrote.