September WTI crude oil (CLU25) on Thursday closed down -0.47 (-0.73%), and September RBOB gasoline (RBU25) closed down -0.129 (-0.62%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices settled lower on Thursday, but crude remained above Wednesday’s 2-month low. The dollar’s strength on Thursday pressured crude prices along with the possible easing of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, as President Trump will meet with Russian President Putin within the next few days to discuss ending the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Crude prices are under pressure on the prospects of easing geopolitical risks, with President Trump scheduled to meet with Russian President Putin to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. The end of the war could boost global oil supplies as sanctions on Russian energy exports could be lifted, which would add crude supplies to the global market.
Crude prices have moved higher after President Trump said last Monday that he would impose new tariffs on countries buying Russian energy unless Russia reaches a ceasefire with Ukraine by this Friday. On Wednesday, President Trump doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50% from 25% because of India’s purchases of Russian crude. JPMorgan Chase warned that if enforced, oil markets would be unable to ignore the impact of triple-digit tariffs on Russian oil, given the significant scale of Russian exports and limited OPEC spare capacity, which could potentially lead to a supply shock.
Concerns about a global oil supply glut are weighing on crude prices after OPEC+ on Sunday endorsed an additional 547,000 bpd increase in its crude production for September 1. OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production by September 2026. After Sunday’s meeting, the group said it will closely monitor demand and may maintain production levels, restart halted supplies, or reverse recent production increases. OPEC+ has 1.66 million bpd of supplies that are currently due to remain offline until late 2026. The International Energy Agency said inventories have been accumulating at a rate of 1 million bpd and that the global crude oil market faces a surplus by Q4-2025 equivalent to 1.5% of global crude consumption. OPEC July crude production fell -20,000 bpd to 28.31 million bpd.
