The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite index have risen further. Among the three, the NASDAQ Composite index outperformed by rising over 2 per cent for the week. The Dow Jones rose 0.95 per cent, the S&P 500 was up 1.59 per cent. Overall, the broader bullish view is intact.
On the other hand, the dollar index remains weak, and the US Treasury yields fell sharply last week.
Here is an analysis of how the US market can perform this week:
Dow Jones (45,834.22)
The Dow Jones has risen and closed just above the resistance at 45,800. Supports are at 45,770, 45,750 and 45,350. Outlook is bullish to see a rise to 46,700-46,800 in the short term. A corrective fall to 45,500-45,000 is a possibility thereafter.
From a long-term perspective, the Dow has potential to target 50,000 as long as it stays above 45,000.
S&P 500 (6,584.29)
The rise to 6,600 happened last week in line with our expectation. Immediate support is at 6,540. The S&P 500 index can rise to 6,650-6,670 in the coming weeks. The upside remains open to test 6,700-6,800 as well.
From a big picture, 6,700-6,800 is a strong resistance zone. A strong reversal is possible from there. As such, more caution is needed as the index gets into the 6,700-6,800 resistance zone.
NASDAQ Composite (22,141.10)
The upmove seems to be gaining strength. Support is in the 21,800-21,700 region which can limit the downside in the short term.
The upside remains open to test 22,800-23,000 or even 23,500 in the coming weeks. Thereafter a corrective fall to 22,000 is a possibility. After that the uptrend can resume and target 26,000 on the upside in the long term
Dollar index outlook
The dollar index (97.55) continues to remain subdued. The near-term picture continues to remain weak. The index can fall to 97. The downside can extend even to 96.60 or 96.20-96.
We reiterate that the region around 96 is a strong support which might not be easy to break. As such, there are good chances for the dollar index to reverse higher from around 96. That in turn will keep the 96-100 range intact.
In case the dollar index breaks below 96, that will be very bearish. However, a strong negative trigger is needed to drag the greenback below 96.
Treasury Yield
The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.06 per cent) has risen back well from the low of 3.99 per cent. The broader picture is weak. However, a corrective rise to 4.15-4.2 per cent is possible. Thereafter a fresh leg of fall can take the yield below 4 per cent targeting 3.9 per cent or even 3.8 per cent. This in turn can keep the dollar index also under pressure.
Data Watch
Inflation in the US continues to rise but it failed to push the yields higher last week. The US Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose by 2.94 per cent (year-on-year).
In this background, it will be interesting to watch the Federal Reserve meeting outcome this week on Wednesday. Market is largely expecting a 25-basis point rate cut this week. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 93 per cent probability for the rate cut.
Apart from the rate cut, it will be important to see the Fed’s dotplot. Any major change in this can cause volatility in the market. Need to wait and watch.
Published on September 13, 2025
