Nifty 50 (25,327) advanced 0.8 per cent and Nifty Bank (55,459) gained 1.2 per cent over the past week. Here is the analysis of futures and options data of both indices:
Nifty 50
Nifty futures (September) (25,411) rallied 0.8 per cent last week. Consequently, it broke out of the barrier at 25,300. This implies a notable shift in momentum.
While there is a resistance ahead at 25,530 and the contract might see some moderation from the current level, there is bullish undercurrent which can eventually take the contract to higher highs.
Although the futures moved higher, the open interest of the September contract dropped from 166 lakh contracts on September 12 to 156 lakh contracts on September 19. This indicates that the upswing was due to short covering.
On the other hand, the Put Call Ratio (PCR) of weekly options is now at 0.82. Also, the PCR of September contract dropped from 1.12 to 1.04 over the last week due to relatively greater call option selling. These are bearish signs.
Overall, the chart shows that Nifty futures has turned bullish. However, the derivatives data do not support it at the moment.
Nevertheless, going ahead, we expect Nifty futures to see a minor correction, possibly to 25,250, and then set off for another northward journey. Key resistance above 25,530 are at 25,725 and 26,000.Â
Strategy:Â Stay out for now. Buy Nifty futures (September) when it softens to 25,250. Place stop-loss at 24,980. When the contract touches 25,550 after the trade is initiated, trail the stop-loss to 25,350. Book profits at 25,750.
Alternatively, one can buy 25500-call of October expiry (₹330.65). Buy if its premium drops to ₹200. Target and stop-loss can be at ₹400 and ₹100 respectively.
Nifty Bank
Nifty Bank futures (September) (55,654) was up 1.2 per cent last week. Thus, it surpassed the barrier at 55,450. But over the last two sessions, there was some decline as the contract faced resistance at the 50-day moving average.
Although the downswing could extend some more, it might not drop below the resistance-turned-support at 55,450. We will most likely see the next leg of rally either from the current level or after a dip to 55,450.
That said, the open interest of the September Nifty Bank futures fell from 24.6 lakh contracts to 20 lakh contracts over the past week, denoting short covering. On the other hand, the PCR of options remain at around 1 showing a similar level of call and put option selling. So, the futures and options data suggests some caution.
Broadly, in the forthcoming sessions, Nifty Bank futures might drop to 55,450 and then it can resume the uptrend. This upswing can take the contract to 56,350 and then to 56,800, which are the potential resistance levels. Notable support below 55,450 can be seen at 55,200 and 55,000.Â
 Strategy: Buy Nifty Bank futures (September) if it dips to 55,450. Keep stop-loss at 55,000 initially. When the contract rises to 56,000 after triggering this order, revise the stop-loss higher to 55,600. Liquidate the longs at 56,350.
Participants in the options segment can buy October 56000-call option (₹680.85). Go long if its premium dips to ₹400. Target and stop-loss can be ₹800 and ₹200 respectively.
Published on September 20, 2025