Crude oil prices, after rising early last week, saw a decline in the second half. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($66.70/barrel) was down 0.5 per cent for the week. Whereas crude oil futures (Oct) on the MCX (₹5,527/barrel) ended flat.
Brent futures ($66.70)
Although Brent crude oil futures saw movement on both sides over the last week, it remains within the price range of $65-69. So, at this juncture, there is a tug of war between the bulls and the bears.
The path of the next leg of trend depends on the direction of the break of the aforementioned range.
If the contract breaks out of $69, it can turn the outlook positive where the price can rise to $72.80 and $75, potential resistance levels. On the other hand, if the support at $65 is breached, it can lead to a fall to $62.
MCX-Crude oil (₹5,527)
Crude oil futures (October) marked an intra-week high of ₹5,686 on Tuesday before witnessing a moderation in price. Nevertheless, it is trading in the range of ₹5,380-5,800, within which it has been oscillating since early August.
The prevailing price action clearly indicates a lack of trend. Until either ₹5,380 or ₹5,800 is breached, we cannot be certain about along which direction crude oil futures will establish the next leg of trend.
A rally past ₹5,800 can lift crude oil futures to ₹6,050. But if the contract breaches the support at ₹5,380, it will open the door for a decline to ₹5,000.
Trade strategy: We had suggested buying crude oil (October) at ₹5,540 with a stop-loss at ₹5,370. Retain this trade as the support at ₹5,380 stays valid. Book profits at ₹5,780.
Published on September 20, 2025