Kalshi has
emerged as the dominant player in prediction market and event-based contract trading,
capturing nearly two-thirds of sector volume as regulated platforms gain ground
over offshore competitors.
Kalshi Captures 62% Market
Share as Prediction Trading Volumes Surge
The CFTC-authorized
company accounted for 62% of total prediction market volume from September
11-17, compared to Polymarket’s 37% share, according
to Dune Analytics data. Kalshi processed over $500 million in weekly
trading volume while maintaining average open interest of $189 million.
Polymarket,
despite generating $430 million in volume during the same period, showed
different trading patterns with an average open interest of $164 million. The
disparity points to what analysts describe as “sticker positions on
Polymarket and faster turnover on Kalshi.”
In recent
days, Kalshi’s lead over Polymarket has grown even larger, reaching 65% of the
total market share. By comparison, as recently as December 2024, Polymarket
accounted for 95% of the market.
Source: Dune Analytics
“Event
contracts have generated high demand because they provide a maximally direct
way to get exposure to events that affect businesses, people, and the economy,
and they provide the most accurate signal on what the likelihood of future
events are,” commented Jack Such from Kalshi, responsible for Business &
Media Development, to FinanceMagnates.com.
Such is
also confident that “prediction markets will become a trillion dollar asset
class.”
Different Trading
Behaviors Emerge Between Platforms
The
platforms’ distinct approaches have created different user behaviors.
Polymarket’s longer-term markets, often spanning weeks or months, keep user
funds locked in for extended periods. This creates higher open interest
relative to volume.
Kalshi
averaged an open interest-to-volume ratio of 0.29, while Polymarket’s ratio hit
0.38. The lower ratio suggests Kalshi users trade more frequently, while
Polymarket positions tend to remain static for longer periods.
The trading
pattern differences reflect each platform’s regulatory environment and market
structure. Kalshi
operates under U.S. regulatory oversight, while Polymarket has historically
served international users through blockchain -based contracts.
Kalshi,
however, is also facing
lawsuits and controversies in several U.S. states. Allegations of gambling
have been further fueled by the fact that Poker
legend Daniel Negreanu was recently named the face of the platform.
Polymarket Pushes Back
Into U.S. Market
Polymarket
isn’t conceding ground easily. The platform completed
its acquisition of QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, clearing the path
for re-entry into the U.S. market after resolving regulatory issues.
The company
has also launched earnings-based prediction markets in
partnership with social investing platform Stocktwits. The collaboration
allows stockholders to hedge earnings risk while providing analysts real-time
market sentiment data.
These moves
represent Polymarket’s attempt to compete directly with Kalshi’s regulatory
advantage in the lucrative U.S. prediction market space. The platform had
previously operated in regulatory gray areas before reaching settlements with
U.S. authorities.
The
competition comes as prediction markets gain mainstream attention, particularly
around political events and corporate earnings. Both platforms have seen
substantial growth in user activity and trading volumes throughout 2025.
You may also like other Kalshi related stories:
- Kalshi Hires 23-Year-Old Crypto Influencer to Lead Digital Asset Expansion
- CFTC Folds Its Hand in Election Betting Showdown with Kalshi
Kalshi has
emerged as the dominant player in prediction market and event-based contract trading,
capturing nearly two-thirds of sector volume as regulated platforms gain ground
over offshore competitors.
Kalshi Captures 62% Market
Share as Prediction Trading Volumes Surge
The CFTC-authorized
company accounted for 62% of total prediction market volume from September
11-17, compared to Polymarket’s 37% share, according
to Dune Analytics data. Kalshi processed over $500 million in weekly
trading volume while maintaining average open interest of $189 million.
Polymarket,
despite generating $430 million in volume during the same period, showed
different trading patterns with an average open interest of $164 million. The
disparity points to what analysts describe as “sticker positions on
Polymarket and faster turnover on Kalshi.”
In recent
days, Kalshi’s lead over Polymarket has grown even larger, reaching 65% of the
total market share. By comparison, as recently as December 2024, Polymarket
accounted for 95% of the market.
Source: Dune Analytics
“Event
contracts have generated high demand because they provide a maximally direct
way to get exposure to events that affect businesses, people, and the economy,
and they provide the most accurate signal on what the likelihood of future
events are,” commented Jack Such from Kalshi, responsible for Business &
Media Development, to FinanceMagnates.com.
Such is
also confident that “prediction markets will become a trillion dollar asset
class.”
Different Trading
Behaviors Emerge Between Platforms
The
platforms’ distinct approaches have created different user behaviors.
Polymarket’s longer-term markets, often spanning weeks or months, keep user
funds locked in for extended periods. This creates higher open interest
relative to volume.
Kalshi
averaged an open interest-to-volume ratio of 0.29, while Polymarket’s ratio hit
0.38. The lower ratio suggests Kalshi users trade more frequently, while
Polymarket positions tend to remain static for longer periods.
The trading
pattern differences reflect each platform’s regulatory environment and market
structure. Kalshi
operates under U.S. regulatory oversight, while Polymarket has historically
served international users through blockchain -based contracts.
Kalshi,
however, is also facing
lawsuits and controversies in several U.S. states. Allegations of gambling
have been further fueled by the fact that Poker
legend Daniel Negreanu was recently named the face of the platform.
Polymarket Pushes Back
Into U.S. Market
Polymarket
isn’t conceding ground easily. The platform completed
its acquisition of QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, clearing the path
for re-entry into the U.S. market after resolving regulatory issues.
The company
has also launched earnings-based prediction markets in
partnership with social investing platform Stocktwits. The collaboration
allows stockholders to hedge earnings risk while providing analysts real-time
market sentiment data.
These moves
represent Polymarket’s attempt to compete directly with Kalshi’s regulatory
advantage in the lucrative U.S. prediction market space. The platform had
previously operated in regulatory gray areas before reaching settlements with
U.S. authorities.
The
competition comes as prediction markets gain mainstream attention, particularly
around political events and corporate earnings. Both platforms have seen
substantial growth in user activity and trading volumes throughout 2025.
You may also like other Kalshi related stories:
- Kalshi Hires 23-Year-Old Crypto Influencer to Lead Digital Asset Expansion
- CFTC Folds Its Hand in Election Betting Showdown with Kalshi
