November WTI crude oil (CLX25) today is up +1.19 (+1.88%), and November RBOB gasoline (RBX25) is up +0.0186 (+0.96%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices are climbing for the second day today, with crude posting a 3-week high. Concerns about Russian crude supplies are lifting prices today after President Trump ramped up his rhetoric against Russia and after NATO promised a “robust” response to Russian incursions into its airspace. Crude prices extended their gains today after weekly EIA crude inventories unexpectedly fell to an 8-month low.
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Crude prices have support on concerns that the ongoing war in Ukraine could lead to additional sanctions on Russian energy exports, reducing global oil supplies. President Trump said he thought NATO nations should shoot down Russian aircraft that violated their airspace and reiterated the need for Europe to cut its energy purchases from Russia. The US proposed that the Group of Seven allies impose tariffs as high as 100% on China and India for their purchases of Russian oil in an effort to convince Russia to end the war in Ukraine. In addition, Canadian Prime Minister Carney stated that he supports actions by Western allies to ramp up pressure on Russia through secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Russian oil.
Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian refineries and oil infrastructure, which is bullish for crude prices as it curbs Russian crude exports and tightens global oil supplies. Last Thursday, Ukraine attacked Russia’s Salavat and Volograd oil refineries, halting around 300,000 bpd of refining capacity. Last Tuesday, Russia’s Transneft Pipeline, which handles more than 80% of the country’s oil, restricted the ability to store crude. Also, the Kirishi refinery, one of Russia’s biggest refineries that has an annual processing capacity of over 20 million tons, halted crude processing after damage caused by a Ukrainian drone attack. In addition, Ukrainian drone attacks have damaged Russian oil infrastructure and crude-exporting hubs along Russia’s Baltic Coast. Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russian refineries have curbed Russia’s total refined-product flows to 1.94 million bpd in the first fifteen days of September, the lowest monthly average in over 3.25 years.
Limiting the upside in crude is the outlook for larger global oil supplies. On Monday, Iraq announced that it had reached an agreement with the regional government of Kurdistan to resume oil exports from the Kurdish region via a pipeline to Turkey, which had been halted for the past two years due to a payment dispute. The resumption of crude exports could add at least 230,000 bpd of fresh oil supplies to global markets.
Reduced crude demand from India, the world’s third largest crude oil importer, is negative for oil price after India’s Aug crude imports fell -2.9% y/y to 19.6 MMT.
An increase in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bearish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days rose by +14% w/w to 74.18 million bbl in the week ended September 19.
Crude prices also have support after OPEC+ agreed on September 7 to raise its crude production by 137,000 bpd, starting in October. This is less than the 547,000 bpd increase the group decided to boost output in September and August. OPEC+ also said restarting the remainder of the 1.66 million bpd crude production it had idled will be contingent on “evolving market conditions.” OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production by September 2026. OPEC Aug crude production rose by +400,000 bpd to 28.55 million bpd, the highest in over two years.
Today’s weekly EIA report was bullish for crude and products. EIA crude inventories unexpectedly fell -607,000 bbl to an 8-month low versus expectations of a +500,000 bbl increase. Also, EIA gasoline supplies fell -1.08 million bbl to a month low, a larger draw than expectations of -1.0 million bbl. In addition, EIA distillate stockpiles unexpectedly fell -1,69 million bbl versus expectations of a +2.0 million bbl build.
Today’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of September 19 were -4.4% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -1.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -7.2% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending September 19 rose by +0.1% w/w to 13.501 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd posted in the week of 12/6/2024.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ending September 19 rose by +2 to 418 rigs, just above the 4-year low of 410 rigs from August 1. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.5-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
