November WTI crude oil (CLX25) on Thursday closed down -0.01 (-0.02%), and November RBOB gasoline (RBX25) closed down -0.0075 (-0.38%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices posted modest losses on Thursday after the dollar index (DXY00) rallied to a 3-week high. Also, the outlook for higher crude exports from Iraq is undercutting crude prices. In addition, Thursday’s decline in stocks has led to a risk-off sentiment in asset markets, weighing on crude prices.
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Crude prices recovered most of their losses Thursday afternoon after European diplomats said they are prepared to shoot down Russian aircraft if further airspace violations are detected. Also, Thursday’s stronger-than-expected US economic news was supportive of energy demand and helped to limit losses in crude oil prices.
The outlook for higher crude production in Iraq is expected to boost global oil supplies, which is bearish for crude prices. Iraq on Monday announced that it had reached an agreement with the regional government of Kurdistan to resume oil exports from the Kurdish region via a pipeline to Turkey, which had been halted for the past two years due to a payment dispute. Iraqi Foreign Minister Hussein said Thursday that the resumption of crude exports could add 500,000 bpd of fresh oil supplies to global markets.
Thursday’s US economic news was better than expected, a supportive factor for energy demand and crude prices. Q2 GDP was revised upward to +3.8% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of no change at +3.3%. Also, weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell by -14,000 to a 2-month low of 218,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 233,000. In addition, Aug core (ex-defense and aircraft) capital goods new orders, a proxy for capital spending, rose +0.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of no change.
Crude prices have support from concerns that the ongoing war in Ukraine could lead to additional sanctions on Russian energy exports, reducing global oil supplies. President Trump said he thought NATO nations should shoot down Russian aircraft that violated their airspace and reiterated the need for Europe to cut its energy purchases from Russia. The US proposed that the G7 allies impose tariffs as high as 100% on China and India for their purchases of Russian oil in an effort to convince Russia to end the war in Ukraine. In addition, Canadian Prime Minister Carney stated that he supports actions by Western allies to ramp up pressure on Russia through secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Russian oil.
Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian refineries and oil infrastructure, which is bullish for crude prices as it curbs Russian crude exports and tightens global oil supplies. Last Thursday, Ukraine attacked Russia’s Salavat and Volograd oil refineries, halting around 300,000 bpd of refining capacity. Last Tuesday, Russia’s Transneft Pipeline, which handles more than 80% of the country’s oil, restricted the ability to store crude. Also, the Kirishi refinery, one of Russia’s biggest refineries that has an annual processing capacity of over 20 million tons, halted crude processing after damage caused by a Ukrainian drone attack. In addition, Ukrainian drone attacks have damaged Russian oil infrastructure and crude-exporting hubs along Russia’s Baltic Coast. Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russian refineries have curbed Russia’s total refined-product flows to 1.94 million bpd in the first fifteen days of September, the lowest monthly average in over 3.25 years.
Reduced crude demand from India, the world’s third largest crude oil importer, is negative for oil price after India’s Aug crude imports fell -2.9% y/y to 19.6 MMT.
An increase in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bearish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days rose by +14% w/w to 74.18 million bbl in the week ended September 19.
Crude prices saw support after OPEC+ on September 7 agreed to raise its crude production by 137,000 bpd, starting in October. That increase was smaller than the 547,000 bpd increase seen in September and August. OPEC+ said restarting the remainder of the 1.66 million bpd crude production it had idled will be contingent on “evolving market conditions.” OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production by September 2026. OPEC Aug crude production rose by +400,000 bpd to 28.55 million bpd, the highest in over two years.
Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of September 19 were -4.4% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -1.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -7.2% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending September 19 rose by +0.1% w/w to 13.501 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd posted in the week of 12/6/2024.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ending September 19 rose by +2 to 418 rigs, just above the 4-year low of 410 rigs from August 1. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.5-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
