There was no jobs report today because of the government shutdown.
But if you’re looking for signs the labor market is struggling, there have been plenty recently.
Hiring is slowing, and firing plans have accelerated to their fastest pace since 2020.
If you’re looking for something to fill the jobs-report-sized hole in your life this morning, look no further.
Just because the shutdown has ground the government’s economic-data reporting to a halt doesn’t mean there’s no new info to digest. One look at the private reports out this week provide a strong-enough snapshot of the labor market.
Unfortunately, the picture isn’t pretty.
Earlier this week, data from ADP showed the private sector lost 32,000 jobs in September, badly missing expectations. Markets also took in a slew of weak employment data on Thursday that suggested the job market is stumbling.
It’s a balancing act for markets. Investors want to see data that supports the case for more Fed rate cuts but doesn’t weaken enough to suggest a full-blown recession.
Here are the latest non-government-supplied warning signs the job market has flashed recently:
There were 17 million job openings in September. That’s down 17.2% year-over-year, according to data from the workforce intelligence firm Revelio Labs.
Seasonally-adjusted active job postings were at their lowest level in at least three years, the firm said.
Job openings saw the steepest drop in the professional and business services industry, which saw openings decline 31.4% year-over-year. That was followed by the government sector and “other services,” with openings in both areas down 30.5% year-over-year.
“Heightened uncertainty is prompting firms and investors to delay new projects and slow hiring, softening labor demand. Looking ahead, fewer postings point to even weaker job growth,” Revelio’s report said.
Employers have announced plans to hire 204,939 workers so far this year, according to data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, down 58% compared to the same period last year.
That’s the lowest number of workers US employers have said they planned to hire over the first nine months of the year since 2009, the outplacement firm said.
The drop is largely due to subdued seasonal hiring. Challenger said it recorded just 100,800 seasonal hiring plans last month, a fraction of the 401,850 seasonal hires that were planned by October of last year.
“With lower consumer confidence and tariff pressures ahead, we predict the hiring season will be muted,” Andy Challenger, the senior vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said of hiring in the retail sector, which makes up a significant portion of new employment heading into the holidays.
