The week ahead for investors will be jam-packed, with the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, a rush of corporate earnings results, and a crucial sit-down between President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping set to feature.
Stocks closed the week at record highs as the delayed release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation pressures moderated in September, keeping the Fed on track to cut interest rates this coming Wednesday.
September’s CPI, originally scheduled to be released Oct. 15 had the government not been shut down, printed at 3% for the month of September, a tenth of a percent lower than expected but slightly elevated from August’s 2.9% rate.
On a “core” basis, leaving out volatile food and energy prices — the Fed’s preferred measure — inflation also rose by 3% in September, cooling from 3.1% in the prior month. Core inflation rose 0.2% on a monthly basis after rising 0.3% in the two preceding months.
In addition to the Fed’s interest rate decision, the coming week will bring investors key data on consumer confidence from the Conference Board, which is set for release on Tuesday.
The corporate earnings calendar will be the busiest of this earnings season, with Big Tech leaders Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META) all set to report quarterly results. Investors will be watching to see whether Big Tech has managed to keep delivering on the lofty expectations that have accompanied the AI boom.
Four out of five of the global energy majors — Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), British major Shell PLC (SHEL), and French major TotalEnergies SE (TTE) — will also report this week, along with UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Verizon (VZ), Southern Company (SO), and a variety of other industry leaders.
Trump’s meeting with Xi is expected to take place Thursday on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in South Korea.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the Federal Reserve on September 17, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) ·Chip Somodevilla via Getty Images
Top of mind for the Fed, according to Street analysts and industry expert Fed watchers, is likely to be the job market, even as the FOMC navigates its meeting without the September jobs report.
A further cut in interest rates is an all but certain outcome.
“Despite the lack of labor market data due to the government shutdown, this lighter-than-expected CPI report should offer a confidence boost to a Federal Reserve that already appeared inclined toward additional rate cuts in October and December,” said Bankrate analyst Stephen Kates.
Read more: How jobs, inflation, and the Fed are all related
Traders are currently pricing a 97.6% probability of another quarter-point cut to follow September’s, which would bring the target rate down to 375-400 from 400-425 now.
“In the absence of the September jobs report, an October cut appears to be a done deal,” Bank of America analysts wrote in a note published Friday.
“And while we still aren’t forecasting a December cut, we think the Fed will be inclined to reduce rates again if there are no further jobs releases until the December meeting,” the note continued.
Taking into account private data, Fed surveys, and state unemployment claims, the BofA analysts wrote, the job market is “at best holding steady and at worst slightly deteriorating since the shutdown began to delay the release of the jobs report.”
Shutdown politics are also growing more closely tied to the labor market, as furloughed federal employees missed their first paycheck of the shutdown last week. The current shutdown is now the second-longest shutdown on record, behind only 2018’s 35-day closure.
Commuters and visitors move through Grand Central Terminal, surrounded by displays, photos and projections from the ‘Dear New York’ exhibition, a multimedia tribute to the people of New York City, in New York City, U.S., October 10, 2025. REUTERS/Roselle Chen ·REUTERS / Reuters
After a bout of uncertainty over timing and whether a meeting would even happen, all three of the major indexes jumped last Thursday when the White House confirmed President Trump would sit down with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in a meeting that will take place on Thursday during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.
In theory, the meeting offers the two world leaders a chance to deal-make and sort out what’s become an ongoing tit-for-tat trade war.
Earlier this month, China severely limited the export of rare earth minerals, leaving the US in a rush to build up an until now nonexistent domestic supply chain. The meeting between Trump and Xi also follows surprise sanctions by the Treasury Department against Russia’s largest oil companies, state-controlled Rosneft and privately owned Lukoil, as the Trump administration looks for leverage to force Russian leader Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table on the war in Ukraine.
Both of these headlines are global news, but like most things in politics, the impacts are local.
Before China instituted export controls on rare earths, Beijing had also all but halted purchases of US soybeans, crushing the American agricultural sector as farmers struggle to find a market for their crops.
“Trade wars are harmful to everyone, and these latest developments are deeply disappointing at a moment when soybean farmers are facing an ever-growing financial crisis,” the American Soybean Association said in a statement on Thursday.
If crude oil prices remain elevated after notching their biggest jump in four months following the Russia sanctions announcement, history has shown that refiners who turn that crude into gasoline typically pass those costs along the supply chain. This indicates Americans could see prices at the pump rise again after several months of relief.
All of this leaves the Trump administration in a complicated position. Push too lightly, and foreign adversaries may take advantage of an opening to move against US interests; push too hard, and American business owners and workers begin to feel it even more at home.
As the trade fight continues, Goldman Sachs economists predict that companies will pass on 70% of the costs brought on by tariffs to customers, meaning everyday products will only get more expensive.
And even if talks between Trump and Xi go reasonably well this week, a “deal” might not end the uncertainty throughout the market right now, Macquarie global foreign exchange and rates strategist Thierry Wizman said: “We’re far from convinced that there will be an important enough ‘deal’ between the US and China in coming days to relieve traders of uncertainty.”
A view of reservoirs of Russian state-controlled oil giant OAO Rosneft, at Priobskoye oil field near Nefteyugansk, in western Siberia, Russia, April 5, 2006. (AP Photo/Misha Japaridze, File) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
Economic and earnings calendar
Economic data: Durable goods orders, September preliminary reading (-0.1% expected); Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing activity, October (-8.7 previously)
Earnings calendar: Welltower (WELL), Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Waste Management (WM), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), The Hartford Insurance Group (HIG)
Economic data: FHFA house price index, month-on-month, August (-0.1% previously); Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing index, October (-17 previously); Conference Board consumer confidence, October (93.8 expected, 94.8 previously); Dallas Federal Reserve services activity, October (-5.6 previously)
Earnings calendar: Visa (V), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), HSBC Holdings (HSBC), NextEra Energy (NEE), Booking Holdings (BKNG), American Tower Corporation (AMT), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Mondelez International (MDLZ), Corning (GLW), UPS (UPS), PayPal (PYPL), MSCI (MSCI), Sysco (SYY), Bloom Energy (BE)
Economic data: MBA mortgage applications, week ended October 24 (-0.3% previously); Wholesale inventories, month-on-month, September preliminary reading (-0.2% expected); Advance goods trade balance, September (-$90 billion expected, -$85.5 billion previously); Retail inventories, month-on-month, September (0.0% previously); Pending home sales, month-on-month, September (4% previously); Pending home sales, year-on-year, September (0.5% previously); FOMC rate decision
Earnings calendar: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Caterpillar (CAT), ServiceNow (NOW), Boeing (BA), Verizon (VZ), KLA Corporation (KLAC), Banco Santander (SAN), UBS Group (UBS), Automatic Data Processing (ADP), CVS (CVS), Starbucks (SBUX), Equinix (EQIX), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Fiserv (FI), American Electric Power Company (AEP), Equinor (EQNR), Chipotle (CMG), Phillips 66 (PSX), eBay (EBAY), Entergy Corporation (ETR), Carvana (CVNA), Prudential (PRU), Kraft Heinz (KHC), American Water Works Company (AWK)
Economic data: Initial jobless claims, week ended October 25; Continuing claims, week ended October 18; Personal consumption, third quarter (2.5% previously); GDP annualized, quarter-on-quarter, third quarter (3% expected, 3.8% previously); GDP price index, third quarter (2.1% previously); GDP PCE price index, quarter-on-quarter, third quarter (2.6% previously)
Earnings calendar: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Eli Lilly (LLY), Mastercard (MA), Merck & Co. (MRK), Shell (SHEL), Gilead Sciences (GILD), S&P Global (SPGI), Stryker Corporation (SYK), TotalEnergies (TTE), Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), Comcast (CMCSA), Southern Company (SO), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Roblox (RBLX), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Coinbase Global (COIN), Strategy (MSTR), The Cigna Group (CI), Cloudflare (NET), Motorola (MSI), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Reddit (RDDT), The Hershey Company (HSY), Estée Lauder (EL), Restaurant Brands International (QSR), Blue Owl Capital (OWL), Fox Corporation (FOX), The Carlyle Group (CG), Zillow (Z), GoDaddy (GDDY)
Economic data: Personal income, September (0.4% expected, 0.4% previously); Personal spending, September (0.4% expected, 0.6% previously); Real personal spending, September (0.4% previously); PCE price index, month-on-month, September (0.3% previously); PCE price index, year-on-year, September (2.7% previously); Core PCE price index, month-on-month, September (0.3% expected, 0.2% previously); Core PCE price index, year-on-year, September (2.9% previously); Employment cost index, third quarter (0.9% previously); MNI Chicago PMI, October (42 expected, 40.6 previously)
Earnings calendar: Exxon Mobil (XOM), AbbVie (ABBV), Chevron (CVX), Linde (LIN), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Canadian National Railway Company (CNI), Dominion Energy (D), Imperial Oil (IMO), Charter Communications (CHTR), Cenovus Energy (CVE), Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), T. Rowe Price (TROW), Piper Sandler (PIPR)
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