Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Eni Lifts Buyback and Outlook After Strong Q3 Driven by Upstream Growth

Eni S.p.A. (BIT: ENI) reported strong third-quarter 2025 results marked by 6% year-on-year production growth, record upstream performance, and continued progress on its energy transition strategy, prompting the company to raise its full-year cash flow outlook and increase its share buyback program by 20% to €1.8 billion.

The Italian energy major delivered a proforma EBIT of €3 billion and net profit of €1.2 billion—20% above expectations—while operating cash flow reached €3.3 billion despite weaker oil prices and a stronger euro. Eni now expects full-year CFFO before working capital of €12 billion, up from €11.5 billion, and has boosted its buyback plan by €300 million amid record-low leverage.

Eni’s upstream division was the key growth driver, with oil and gas production climbing to 1.76 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. The quarter saw multiple milestones, including the final investment decision on the Coral North FLNG project in Mozambique, the sale of a 30% stake in Côte d’Ivoire’s Baleine field for €1 billion, and the launch of the Agogo West Hub in Angola ahead of schedule. The company also advanced a major Asian LNG partnership with Petronas, expected to close by year-end.

In parallel, Eni continued to push forward its energy transition strategy. Its renewables arm, Plenitude, reached 4.8 GW of installed capacity and remains on track for 5.5 GW by year-end. Refining hubs in Sannazzaro and Priolo are being converted to biofuel and circular production, while Versalis, Eni’s chemicals arm, is shifting toward battery and recycling ventures. A new satellite joint venture with Global Infrastructure Partners will expand the company’s carbon capture and storage (CCUS) portfolio, and a €2 billion investment from Ares Fund into Plenitude is nearing completion.

Eni’s “satellite” model—spinning off specialized entities like Plenitude, Enilive, and Azule Energy—continues to generate value. These ventures now contribute to a steady cash inflow that has allowed the group to maintain a leverage ratio of just 12% on a pro forma basis. CEO Claudio Descalzi emphasized that this strategic structure “ensures accelerated growth and stable dividends” while maintaining balance sheet strength.

Financial Overview:

  • Proforma adjusted EBIT: €3 billion

  • Adjusted net profit: €1.2 billion (+20% above forecast)

  • Operating cash flow: €3.3 billion (+14% YoY)

  • Gross capex: €2 billion

  • Net debt: €9.9 billion

  • Proforma leverage: 12%

  • Production guidance raised to 1.71–1.72 mln boe/d for 2025

  • Dividend: €1.05 per share for FY 2025 (+5% YoY)

Eni expects to end 2025 with leverage between 15–18%, net capex below €5 billion, and total cash initiatives reaching €4 billion—30% higher than prior targets. The company will pay the second tranche of its 2025 dividend (€0.26/share) on November 26, 2025.

Despite weaker commodity prices, Eni’s integrated energy strategy—anchored by upstream expansion, LNG growth, and renewable investments—continues to support stronger-than-expected returns and shareholder distributions.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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