Sugar Prices Rebound as Brazilian Real Strength Sparks Short Covering

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.12 (+0.85%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) is up +1.50 (+0.36%).

Sugar prices recovered from early losses today and moved higher as strength in the Brazilian real sparked short covering in sugar futures.  The real (^USDBRL) climbed to a 4-week high against the dollar today, discouraging export sales from Brazil’s sugar producers.

This latest month-long selloff in sugar knocked NY sugar prices to a 5-year nearest-futures low today and London sugar to a 4.75-year low last Thursday, mainly due to higher sugar output in Brazil and talk of a global sugar surplus.  Datagro on October 21 projected that Brazil’s Center-South 2026/27 sugar production will climb +3.9% y/y to a record 44 MMT.  In related news, BMI Group on October 13 projected a global 2025/26 sugar surplus of 10.5 MMT, and Covrig Analytics on October 7 projected a global 2025/26 sugar surplus of 4.1 MMT.

Higher sugar output in Brazil is undercutting prices.  On Tuesday, Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT.  Last Thursday, Unica reported that Brazil’s Center-South sugar output in the first half of October rose by +1.3% y/y to 2.484 MT.  Also, the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills in the first half of October increased to 48.24% from 47.33% the same time last year.  In addition, cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through mid-October rose +0.9% y/y to 36.016 MMT.

Signs of a larger sugar crop in India, the world’s second-largest producer, are undercutting prices after the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) on Tuesday raised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y.  The ISMA also cut its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which may allow India to boost its sugar exports.

The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for sugar prices, as abundant monsoon rains may produce a bumper sugar crop.  On September 30, India’s Meteorological Department reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall as of that date was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, marking the strongest monsoon in five years.  On June 2, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage.  That would follow a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar production in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.1 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).

Another bearish factor for sugar was the recent assertion from sugar trader Sucden that India may divert only 4 MMT of sugar to make ethanol in 2025/26, which is not enough to ease the country’s sugar surplus and may prompt India’s sugar mills to export as much as 4 MMT of sugar, above earlier expectations of 2 MMT.

The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for prices.  The Thai Sugar Millers Corp on October 1 projected that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar crop will increase by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT.  On May 2, Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar production rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT.  Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter.

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season on August 29, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits.  ISO projects a global 2025/26 sugar deficit of -231,000 MT, down from the -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25.  ISO also projects that 2025/26 global sugar production will rise by +3.3% y/y to 180.6 MMT, and 2025/26 global sugar consumption will increase by +0.3% y/y to 180.8 MMT.

The USDA, in its bi-annual report released May 22, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would climb +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y/y to a record 177.921 MMT.  The USDA also forecast that 2025/26 global sugar ending stocks would climb by +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar production would rise by 2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT.  FAS also predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would increase by 25% y/y to 35.3 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  In addition, FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar production will increase by +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com