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Nvidia (NVDA) has beaten Wall Street earnings estimates 90% of the time over the past five years but averaged only a 6.5% beat in the last four quarters.
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Nvidia expects no revenue from H20 chip sales to China in Q3 due to ongoing export restrictions on advanced AI chip sales.
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Wall Street forecasts $54.83B in Q3 revenue for Nvidia, representing 56% year-over-year growth driven by data center demand.
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Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stands as the undisputed leader in artificial intelligence (AI) chips, powering data centers and enabling breakthroughs in generative AI. Over the past few years, the company has transformed from a graphics specialist into a tech powerhouse, with its stock surging amid the AI boom.
Over the past five years, Nvidia has beaten Wall Street’s earnings estimates 90% of the time, sometimes by more than 30%, showcasing consistent outperformance. In the last four quarters, however, the chipmaker has averaged a beat of only 6.5%, likely due to analysts getting better at predicting its results.
Investors are now laser-focused on Nvidia’s upcoming third-quarter results, set for release after market close on Nov. 19. Expectations run high, with Wall Street forecasting $54.83 billion in revenue and $1.25 in adjusted earnings per share — up 56% and 54% year-over-year, respectively.
This pressure mounts as “whisper numbers,” the unofficial higher estimates circulating among traders, suggest Nvidia must deliver an even bigger surprise to avoid disappointing the market. Any miss could trigger a selloff, especially given its role as a bellwether for the broader AI sector.
Nvidia’s success in the recent quarter likely stems from its commanding position in the AI ecosystem. As the primary supplier of GPUs for training large language models, the company has capitalized on demand from hyperscalers like Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META).
In the prior quarter, data center revenue hit record levels, driven by Blackwell chip ramp-ups and partnerships with AI innovators. These factors could push Q3 revenue toward or beyond the guided $54 billion, with analysts projecting 54% growth. On the bottom line, improved margins from economies of scale and software integrations, such as CUDA, may boost adjusted earnings to around $1.25 per share.
Beyond hardware, Nvidia’s Omniverse platform for simulations has gained traction in industries like automotive and robotics, adding diversified revenue streams. Recent wins include expanded deals with Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) for cloud AI infrastructure, potentially contributing millions in incremental sales. Overall, these tailwinds position Nvidia for another strong showing, reinforcing its market cap lead on the S&P 500.
