Wednesday, December 24, 2025

3 Reasons Verizon Stock Will Likely Continue to Underperform the Market

Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) may be one of the more surprising underperformers in the market today. It operates one of the three nationwide wireless networks in the U.S., and it also manages an extensive fiber network. As a longtime leader in network quality, it should presumably hold a competitive advantage.

Nonetheless, staying competitive with AT&T and T-Mobile US comes at a high cost, a likely consequence of the stock’s poor performance. Thus, as it deals with three key challenges, its struggles will likely continue.

Not surprisingly, the cost of upgrades and maintenance is a tremendous burden for Verizon. Over the past 12 months, the company has spent more than $18 billion on capital expenditures alone. That has contributed to the company’s tremendous debt levels. As of the third quarter, total debt stood at almost $147 billion. Considering its book value is just over $106 billion, that burden places significant strain on its balance sheet.

Outside view of a Verizon building.
Image source: Verizon.

However, one of the more notable contributors to its debt was a $53 billion purchase of wireless spectrum in 2021. Spectrum is a type of RF real estate that gives Verizon the right to use prime frequencies in a specific geographic area. Hence, while such control enhances its competitive advantage in quality, it also comes at a tremendous cost.

Moreover, one cannot fully address the debt without addressing a major obstacle to paying down its obligations — the cost of its dividend.

Over the trailing 12 months, Verizon generated over $21 billion in free cash flow. On the surface, that should cover the more than $11 billion in dividend costs. However, that is $11 billion per year that it does not spend toward retiring debt, a move that would almost certainly bolster Verizon’s balance sheet.

Unfortunately, Verizon appears to have become trapped by its dividend. The $2.76 per share annual payout offers a dividend yield of 6.6%, far above the S&P 500 average of 1.1%. Still, instead of buying, income investors may see its payout as a dividend cut waiting to happen, but the situation is more complicated.

Verizon has hiked its payout for 19 consecutive years, which implicitly sets the expectation that such increases will come every year. Reneging on that expectation could diminish confidence in a stock. That happened to its rival, as AT&T’s stock suffered for years after abandoning a 35-year streak of payout hikes, and, knowing that, Verizon is likely trying to avoid the same fate.

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