Nifty 50 and Sensex fell breaking below their support last week contrary to our expectation. However, the benchmark indices have managed to rise back from their second support level. The Nifty Bank index has also risen back after a short-lived dip below its support. All the three indices were down in the range of 0.5-0.65 per cent.
The price action last week has not caused any damage to the structure of the overall uptrend. The broader bullish view continues to remain intact. Indeed, the strong bounce back move in the second half strengthens the bullish case for the Indian benchmark indices.
FPIs sell
The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) sold heavily in the first two weeks of this month. There has been a net outflow of about $1.99 billion in the equity segment so far this month. Unless the FPIs start buying, the rise in the Nifty and Sensex is going to be shallow.
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Nifty 50 (26,046.95)
Short-term view: The outlook remains positive. Immediate support is at 26,000. Below that 25,800 is the next important support. Resistance is at 26,350 which can be tested if the Nifty manages to sustain above 26,000 this week.
Eventually, we expect the Nifty to breach 26,350 and rise to 26,900-27,000 in the short term.
Nifty will come under more selling pressure only if it declines below 25,600. If that happens, a fall to 25,300-25,200 can come into the picture.
Medium-term view: The big picture remains bullish. We retain our view of the Nifty rising towards 28,000 over the medium term. From a long-term perspective, Nifty has potential to target 31,000-32,000.
Supports are at 25,000, 24,000 and 23,500. A fall below 23,500 is needed to negate the bullish view and turn the outlook bearish.
Nifty Bank (59,389.95)
Short-term view: The price action last week indicates the absence of strong sellers below 59,000. That keeps the bias positive. Immediate resistance is at 59,600. A break above it can take the Nifty Bank index higher towards 60,500 initially. An eventual break above 60,500 will see the upside extending towards 61,000 in the coming weeks.
Supports are at 59,000 and 58,700. The short-term picture will turn bearish for a fall to 58,200-58,000 only on a break below 58,700.
Medium-term view: The overall uptrend is intact. Immediate support is at 58,000. Below that 56,000-54,000 is the broad support zone.
Nifty Bank index can rise to 62,000-62,500 in the coming months. Thereafter a corrective fall to 60,000-59,000 is possible. Eventually, the index can target 65,000 on the upside in the long term.
The bullish view will go wrong only if the index declines below 54,000. That looks unlikely.
Sensex (85,267.66)
Short-term view: Resistance is in the 85,700-85,800 region. Sensex has to breach 85,800 in order to regain the bullish momentum. Only then the doors will open for a rise to 88,000-88,500.
Failure to rise past 85,800 can drag the index down to 85,000-84,000 again. Near-term support is at 84,000. Below that, a strong support is around 83,000. Sensex has to break this support to turn the outlook bearish. That looks less likely.
Medium-term view: The broader trend remains up. Sensex can rise to 91,000-92,000 in the medium term. Before this rise happens, a corrective fall from 89,000 to 86,000 is a possibility. Sensex also has the potential to target 95,000 on the upside in the long term. Â
The region around 82,000 will be an important support. Sensex has to fall below this support to reverse the uptrend.
Nifty Midcap 150 (22,152.10)
The index broke the support at 21,700 but did not sustain. It has risen back sharply from the low of 21,485.90. Immediate resistance is around 22,200. A break above it can take the index higher to 22,500, an important resistance.
As mentioned last week a break above 22,500 will be bullish for a rise to 22,900. Such a rise will confirm the bullish inverted head and shoulder pattern on the chart. That will keep the outlook bullish to see 24,500-25,000 on the upside in the medium term and 27,000-28,000 in the long term.
Failure to breach 22,500 can keep the index vulnerable for a fall back to 21,700-21,600. A sustained break below 21,600 will be bearish to see 21,000 on the downside. As such the price action around 22,500 will need a close watch.
Nifty Smallcap 250 (16,396.85)
The Nifty Smallcap 250 index has managed to recover most of the loss after tumbling to a low of 15,859.60 initially last week.
The short-term picture looks weak. Resistances are at 16,500, 16,620 and 16,730. As long as the index stays below 16,730, the bias will remain negative and the danger of seeing 15,500 on the downside will remain.
A decisive rise above 16,730 is needed to get a relief rise to 17,100 and 17,350. Only then the danger of the fall to 15,500 will get negated.
Published on December 13, 2025
