Monday, December 22, 2025

Where risk is becoming apparent as 2025 closes out

00:00 Brian

Tom, I’d love to get your thoughts on what I just dumped out there into the uh internet sphere on what is driving this AI rally uh into the year end.

00:10 Tom

Well, you know, it’s been an unbelievable year and so to this point, everybody that’s been long AI stocks for the entire year, you know, they’ve gotten paid. So I just think it’s a lack of sellers. I I’m not nearly as bullish as as you are going into January, but for now, I just think it’s a lack of sellers.

00:32 Brian

Uh why not? What gives you pause, Tom?

00:37 Tom

Uh just price. I mean, if you’re, you know, I’m I’m a pretty, I’ve been a pretty active trader for a long time and price is kind of everything. I don’t really think about anything, you know, beyond price. and sometimes you get to the point where you’re like, hey, it it just becomes a pot odds play, Brian. Where is there more risk? Is there more risk to staying long or is there a better payout being short? That’s all it is.

01:04 Brian

Is there underneath the surface of let’s say Nvidia, Tom and some of those well-known uh AI plays? Are there other areas of the market in in AI that are that are breaking down that that are red flags to you?

01:15 Tom

No, not yet. I mean, I mean the the small caps, the small cap AI stocks are trailing a little bit, but not really and there’s a lot of stocks in the pipeline that, you know, also look good that might come out as IPOs in 2026. But for the most part, I think it’s just, it’s just the mega tech, the mega tech stocks. It’s it’s the it’s the big, too big to fail companies. And I think in that sense, that’s where the real risk is.

01:33 Brian

Brooke, I mentioned here at the top that uh AI is back in rally mode. I call out Nvidia, Microsoft, but if if you dig down a little deeper, it’s not every one of these stocks have been rocking the past five or even 10 trading sessions.

01:46 Brooke

Yeah, if you take a look, there are some companies that are definitely pulling back some momentum. For example, we do have Oracle moving higher today, up about 1.2%, but if you take a look over the month, it’s down about 2%. Over the past six months, down about 5% as we make our way into year end. And also, in addition to that, to take a look at some of the players that did go public this year. Take for example, we have uh another one like Core Weave moving higher today up about 3.5%. On the flip side, that stock up nearly 20% year uh or rather in the past month alone as we make our way into the end of the year. I think that investors are really trying to see how exactly they could still get into this this tech rally, still find those spots that maybe have been underperformers as of late in fear that they might miss out. I think we’re seeing a bit of FOMO as we make our way into the later days and the last few days of this year’s trading session.

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