Nvidia Stock Had a Volatile 2025: What’s the 2026 Forecast?

Nvidia stock (NVDA) is up 41.88% year-to-date and is the second-best performing constituent of the “Magnificent 7” stocks, trailing only Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), whose 2025 price action surprised even some of the bulls. While Nvidia’s 2025 returns – which are well above twice the average S&P 500 Index ($SPX) constituent – would look stellar, they pale in front of the triple-digit returns that it delivered in the previous two years.

Nvidia stock was quite volatile this year and plunged to $86.62 on April 7 amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The rebound was also quick, though, and the stock has more than doubled from its 2025 lows even as it is down 11.37% from the record high of $212.19 in late October.  

Nvidia Announced Multiple Deals in 2025

Nvidia went on a deal-making spree in 2025, announcing a flurry of investments. Among others, it reported an investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI, $5 billion in Intel (INTC), $10 billion in Anthropic, $1 billion in Nokia (NOK), $2 billion in Synopsis (SNPS), and also participated in funding rounds of several other companies this year. In addition, it committed to invest two billion British pounds in AI startups in the U.K. as well as reportedly investing $2 billion in Elon Musk’s xAI. 

More recently, Nvidia struck a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Groq in a deal that is said to be valued at $20 billion, making it the biggest ever deal for the Jensen Huang-led company. Meanwhile, in an apparent bid to evade regulatory scrutiny, the deal has been structured as an “inference technology licensing agreement,” which would see the Groq founder, president, and other employees join Nvidia. 

Uncertainty Over Nvidia’s China Business

Another defining feature for Nvidia this year was the continued uncertainty over its China business. The Trump administration barred the company from exporting H20 chips to the Communist country. While later it approved their exports in exchange for a 15% cut in revenues, Nvidia’s China sales all but evaporated after the country cautioned domestic companies against using these chips over potential backdoors.

Now, the U.S. government has allowed exports of the more powerful H200 chips, albeit with an even fatter revenue cut of 25%, and reports suggest that this time around, the demand for these chips is quite strong. However, Democratic lawmakers have called upon the administration to disclose the license applications of Chinese companies looking to buy these chips. The H200 is more powerful than the H20, whose exports were ostensibly blocked over “national security” concerns. So we can be sure of a political slugfest over its exports, given the “civil-military” fusion in the world’s second biggest economy.

NVDA Stock Forecast

Nvidia’s mean target price of $256 is over 34.36% higher than the current price levels. Dan Ives of Wedbush, a permabull on tech stocks, believes that $250 is the base case target for Nvidia by the end of this year, whereas Evercore ISI has the Street-high target price of $352 on the stock, making for a potential 84.75% upside.

Consensus estimates call for Nvidia’s revenues to rise 63% to $213.2 billion in the current fiscal year, which would end in January 2026, and then rise by almost 50% to $319 billion in the next fiscal year. There could be more upside to these already splendid numbers if Nvidia’s China business gets back on track. Nvidia trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 42.9x while its P/E-to-growth (PEG) multiple is 0.92, which makes it the only Magnificent 7 constituent to have a PEG multiple below 1.

To be sure, there are concerns over a potential AI bubble and rising competition in the AI chip market, with even some of Nvidia’s biggest customers like Alphabet and Amazon (AMZN) selling their own chips to third parties.

Overall, Nvidia appears to have another strong year ahead, and while investors should temper their expectations and not expect triple-digit annual returns in perpetuity, the stock should continue to create investor wealth as it has been doing for the last several years.

On the date of publication,

Mohit Oberoi

had a position in: NVDA
, INTC
, GOOG
, AMZN
. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.

For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy

here.