Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($64.10/barrel) was up 1.2 per cent last week whereas crude oil futures in the domestic market (₹5,449/barrel) gained 1.5 per cent. Here is the outlook and trade recommendation:
Brent futures ($64.10)
Brent crude oil futures rallied to mark a four-month high of $66.82 on Wednesday before moderating to the current level of $64.10. But the price remains above both 21- and 50-day moving averages and the important support at $62.
From the current level, the contract might slip to $62-62.50 price band. But then, we expect it to resume the uptrend and rise to $69 in the near term. Resistance above $69 is at $71.
On the other hand, if Brent crude futures breaches the support at $62, it can extend the downswing to $60. But overall, the bias is bullish and the probability of a rally is high.
MCX-Crude oil (₹5,449)
Crude oil futures (February) rallied for the second straight week and hit a four-month high of ₹5,621 on Wednesday. But then the contract softened to close at ₹5,449 on Friday.
Despite the dip in price, the contract remains above both 21- and 50-day moving averages and the resistance-turned-support at ₹5,300 stays valid.
There is a chance for crude oil futures to drop to ₹5,300. However, the downtick is unlikely to extend beyond this level. The bulls can regain traction and start pushing the price higher.
The price action hints at a rally to ₹5,650 soon, which can extend to ₹5,800. But if the contract breaks below the support at ₹5,300, it can decline to ₹5,060. Support below ₹5,060 is at ₹5,000.
Trade strategy: Hold onto the longs initiated on February futures at ₹5,320. Retain target and stop-loss at ₹5,650 and ₹5,200 respectively.
Published on January 17, 2026