Microsoft Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Investor Focus Is on Azure Growth

Microsoft (NASDAQ:) investors are going to focus on the Intelligent Cloud results, which include Azure and other server products.

Key Highlights

• The company demonstrates exceptional financial performance with a 15.04% revenue growth rate and robust EBITDA of $142.04 billion, while its cloud division Azure continues to gain market share against competitors like AWS.
• Microsoft’s recent Q2 2025 results exceeded expectations with EPS of $3.23 and revenue of $69.6 billion, highlighted by a 21% year-over-year surge in cloud revenue. Particularly noteworthy is the company’s AI business acceleration, achieving a $13 billion annual revenue run rate, representing a remarkable 175% year-over-year growth.
• MSFT has a monopoly-like position in various areas (OS, Office), the cash cows to help drive Azure growth.
• Microsoft 365 continues to benefit from upselling into higher-priced stock-keeping units as customers are willing to pay up for better security and Teams Phone, which is likely to continue over the next several years.
• Momentum is slowing in the ongoing shift to subscriptions, particularly in office.
• The AI landscape is rapidly evolving, with new entrants like DeepSeek challenging established players, potentially pressuring Microsoft’s market share and pricing power.

MSFT Q3 2025 earnings after-market Wednesday, April 30, 2025.

Financial Health History

Financial Health for Microsoft is determined by ranking the company on over 100 factors against companies in the Information Technology sector and operating in Developed economic markets.

Option Statistics

Put/Call ratio suggests the following three scenarios:

• With Put/Call ratio between 0.7237 to 0.5301 for the next four upcoming expiries suggests that the overall option traders’ position is inclined towards Calls.
• Lower earnings and guidance could trigger a sharp sell-off.
• Better-than-expected guidance would trigger a gradual rise.
• Option market is showing a large net positive Gamma at 400 strike versus net negative gamma exposure at 380 strike over the spectrum of April 2025 to Jan 2027.

Technical Analysis Perspective

• MSFT held 366 -349 July 2023 previous all-time high in the recent decline.
• This drop seems like a retest of the previous all-time high.
• Stock tends to move in a channel pattern since Nove 2021. Initially in a falling channel from Nov ’21 to Oct ‘22.
• Followed by a rising channel from Oct ’22 to Jul ’24 and now hovering inside a declining channel from Jul ’24 to date.
• MSFT is near the midpoint of the channel at 393.50/395.50 on weekly charts.
• A strong upward penetration above 395.50 post earnings would target 430/435 obstacle.
• Rejection of 395.50 obstacle would eye 366/357 support region.

Weekly Candlestick Chart

MSFT Seasonality Chart

• MSFT closes 4.73.4% higher in April 5703% of the time since 2006.

Conclusion

• MSFT breaks/hold 395.50 post earnings would pave the way for 430/435 resistance. Failure to do would target 366/357 support region.

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Disclaimer: Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training. Follow us on “X” formerly Twitter “@twtlearning.”