Tesla Inc struggled with weakening demand in several global markets throughout 2025, a trend that could challenge the electric-vehicle maker’s lofty valuation. One market expert argues the stock remains inflated by Elon Musk loyalists.
Musk’s fan base and Tesla have inflated the stock’s valuation in recent years, with shares often trading at a premium to other automotive and technology stocks.
With high expectations for Tesla’s autonomous driving, the Future Fund Managing Partner, Gary Black, has a reminder for what too high expectations can mean for the electric vehicle company.
“The current hype that $TSLA will come to dominate unsupervised ride hailing reminds me of 2020-2021, when TSLA bulls were adamant that Elon would reach his goal of delivering 20M vehicles per year by 2030,” Black tweeted.
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Instead, the new analyst consensus estimate is 2.8 million deliveries by 2030.
$TSLA losing streak is now at three weeks, extending its YTD decline to -11.8% vs NDX -2.4% YTD. Investors clearly growing wary of Elon’s promise that TSLA unsupervised autonomy will be in 25%-50% of the U.S. by year-end, when today only 8 vehicles out of ~400 TSLA robotaxis in…
Tesla bulls expect Musk to solve unsupervised autonomy, or the driverless goal of Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD) technology. Specifically, Tesla investors could be trading the stock now based on Musk’s promise for unsupervised autonomy in 25% to 50% of the U.S. by the end of 2026.
“TSLA bulls offer valuation models of $1,000/$2,000 and more that assume Tesla takes nearly All of the autonomous ride hailing market, which is as absurd as TSLA taking 25% of the overall auto market by 2030,” Black says.
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Black names Alphabet Inc, Baidu, Pony AI, WeRide Inc and Amazon.com Inc as companies that are also working on autonomous rides each week. Black also names NVIDIA Corporation as a company ready to provide autonomous hardware and software to Tesla’s OEM competitors.
“To argue no one else can achieve generalized unsupervised autonomy flies in the face of reality,” he adds.
There are three reasons why Tesla bulls are likely wrong about autonomous vehicles once again, Black says.
