Summary
The major indices are heading for their worst month and weakest quarter since the bear market in 2022. This will be the second straight March with a dismal performance for the stock market, and the indices look vulnerable to further damage as prices are in a large “no man’s land” region with little chart resistance. In addition to many weak individual charts, we now have to deal with the breakdown in once-leading semiconductor stocks. The semis make up about 14% of the S&P 500 (SPX) and over 24% of the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). The two largest semis in the SPX and the QQQ are the $4 trillion NVDA (7.5% of the SPX and 8.6% of the QQQ) and the $1.4 trillion AVGO (2.6% of the SPX and 3% of the QQQ). The VanEck Semiconductor (SMH, $362.50) is the largest semi ETF. After a massive 138% advance from April 8 until February 25, price broke its bullish channel and lost its 21-week exponential average for the first time since last February. Over the past six months, downside volume has been heavy, a clear sign institutional distribution. There is minor chart support in the $325-$355 region. Meanwhile, an initial 38.2% retracement of the rally from last April comes in at $329, the ris
