The word-mention prediction market was buzzing before President Donald Trump‘s much-anticipated televised address, and bettors scored big based on which terms he used and which he avoided.
After Trump’s repeated hints that the military campaign against Iran was nearing an end, many expected a de-escalatory address. Over $100,000 was wagered on the word “Ceasefire/Peace Deal” on Polymarket.
Far from it, Trump said that the war will continue until the “objectives are fully achieved” and threatened to strike Iran big if a deal is not made sooner.
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Both “ceasefire” and “peace” were notably absent from his address. One user, Dragontree, who purchased 9,741 “No” shares when the odds were 35%, ended up securing a $6,300 profit.
Wagers tied to “Hormuz” mentions totaled $146,000, with a user named Nikitanrg earning roughly $791 after a 25% gain on “Yes” shares.
“Regime Change” also made it to Trump’s speech. User named adelgranado made a 54% betting on “Yes” shares.
There was nothing on Iran’s current and former Supreme Leaders. With “Khamenei / Khomeini” missing, Valen9 scored a 76% gain, or $1,457, betting on “No” shares.
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Polymarket, powered by the Polygon network, uses USDC, allowing users to buy “Yes” and “No” shares using the stablecoin. The shares representing the correct outcome are paid out $1 USDC each upon market resolution.
Polymarket has been under scrutiny for some perfectly-timed wagers — made on the outcomes of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s arrest and the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran.
Federal prosecutors in Manhattan are reportedly investigating whether profitable bets placed on prediction markets violated insider trading and other laws.
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Image via Shutterstock/ Mason Lawrence
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