The electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) market has the potential to be huge. Flying air taxis could ease congestion in major cities and be an exciting new way for people to get around. Getting in early and investing in up-and-coming companies in the space may lead to significant returns later on.
Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) is one of the big, early players in the eVTOL space today. Its market cap is around $9 billion, but its valuation has been coming down; this year, its shares have fallen by 30% and are down about 56% from their 52-week highs. With a reduced price and tremendous growth prospects, could an investment in this promising eVTOL stock one day grow to be worth $1 million?
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According to Grand View Research, the global eVTOL market was worth just $1.35 billion in 2023. But by the end of the decade, it could be worth as much as $28.6 billion. That translates into a compounded annual growth rate of 54.9%, representing a staggering opportunity for Joby and other eVTOL companies to tap into.
The industry is in its early stages, and Joby hasn’t commenced operations just yet, but it hopes that will change soon. CEO JoeBen Bevirt believes this year will be an “inflection point” for the business as it expects to carry its first passengers in the United Arab Emirates. It has also been making progress toward certifying its aircraft in the U.S., and if that happens soon, that would be a huge milestone for the business.
By the end of the decade, the entire eVTOL market might be worth just under $29 billion — that’s a little more than three times Joby’s current market cap of $9 billion. Investors have already priced the stock high, and even though it’s come down a bit this year, there may still be significant downside risk.
There are too many question marks around the business today and the entire industry to be confident that Joby can indeed be a millionaire-making stock. I’m not sure if it could even be a 10-bagger given its inflated valuation. It could make for an intriguing growth stock to buy, if you’re comfortable with the risk and uncertainty that comes with it, but you may want to temper your expectations given that the stock really isn’t all that cheap.
