Trump says Iran has ‘no choice’ but to make a ‘great deal’ with the US — for investors, the proof is in the oil prices

Crude oil prices have skyrocketed since the start of the Iran war, only dropping slightly when Trump announced a ceasefire on April 7.

Ahead of the ceasefire expiring on April 22, Trump said that he expected the U.S. was “going to end up with a great deal” with Iran, saying he thinks Iran has “no choice” (1). Instead, he ended up extending the ceasefire. But Iran’s recent seizure of two ships in the Strait of Hormuz has put that ceasefire on shaky ground (2).

Brent crude oil prices are back over $100 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices are a little under $95 per barrel — both marked increases since the start of the ceasefire (3). Investors are keeping a close eye on crude oil prices to see where they’ll land.

Higher crude oil prices generally mean higher gas prices will soon follow, although the change isn’t immediate. But crude oil doesn’t just impact the price of gas: it touches multiple sectors of the economy, including transportation, plastics and even grocery prices.

Consumers aren’t the only ones struggling with high pump prices right now. Global oil price increases also impact transportation services, especially planes. Jet fuel is currently around $4 per gallon; before the Iran war started, it was sitting at a little under $2.50 per gallon (4).

As a result, airlines have canceled flights, added fees, and raised fares to recoup some of that extra expense.

Plastics are made of crude oil derivatives, as well as chemicals that also frequently traveled through the Strait of Hormuz (5). As such, manufacturers that relied on plastic have also been hit with much higher production costs, forcing them to either shut down or drastically raise prices on goods often valued for how affordable they are.

Beef prices were already high even before the start of the war because of smaller cattle herds, but prices rose even higher when crude oil prices rose (6). Ranching is heavily dependent on oil. It’s used to transport, store and package the beef throughout the product’s life cycle. And while beef is unusually reliant on oil, other perishable foods also rely on it to transport their food and keep it safe to eat.

All of these fields are either already struggling under high crude oil prices or will be soon, even if the war doesn’t escalate further. And they could be feeling the impact for months to come.

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The best way to protect your investments is to diversify your investment portfolio. Make sure you aren’t sinking all of your investments into one company or sector; instead, spread them across multiple fields. If one company or area starts doing poorly, your overall portfolio won’t be impacted as much.

At the same time, rising oil prices can complicate the outlook for inflation and interest rates, which tend to influence everything from stock valuations to bond performance. In that environment, some investors look to more stable assets, such as government bonds, to help balance risk, even if those investments typically offer lower returns.

Rather than trying to predict the next move in oil prices, many investors focus on staying balanced and prepared for a range of outcomes. If prices remain elevated, the effects could ripple across the economy, and portfolios that are positioned for that uncertainty may be better equipped to weather it.

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CNBC (1); CNN (2); The New York Times (3); Airlines for America (4); The Atlantic (5); Forbes (6)

This article originally appeared on Moneywise.com under the title: Trump says Iran has ‘no choice’ but to make a ‘great deal’ with the US — for investors, the proof is in the oil prices

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