June Nymex natural gas (NGM26) on Tuesday closed up +0.090 (+2.98%).
Nat-gas prices on Tuesday added to Monday’s gains, posting an 8-week nearest-future high. Annual spring maintenance has curbed US nat-gas production and boosted prices. However, gains were limited as the annual maintenance has also reduced US nat-gas exports to a 4-month low, boosting domestic supplies.
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Gains in nat-gas prices were also reduced by the outlook for cooler US temperatures, which may curb nat-gas demand to power increased air-conditioning usage. The Commodity Weather Group said Tuesday that forecasts shifted cooler, with mostly normal seasonal weather expected across the US from May 24-28.
The outlook for the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed for the foreseeable future is supportive for nat-gas as the closure will curb Middle Eastern nat-gas supplies, potentially boosting US nat-gas exports to make up for the shortfall.
Projections for higher US nat-gas production are negative for prices. Last Tuesday, the EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US dry nat-gas production to 110.61 bcf/day from an April estimate of 109.60 bcf/day. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs posting a 2.5-year high in late February.
On April 17, nat-gas prices tumbled to a 1.5-year nearest-futures low amid robust US gas storage. EIA nat-gas inventories as of May 8 were +6.5% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling abundant US nat-gas supplies.
US (lower-48) dry gas production on Tuesday was 108.2 bcf/day (+0.5% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Tuesday was 72.2 bcf/day (+5.5% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Tuesday were 15.6 bcf/day (-15.27% w/w) and a 4-month low, according to BNEF.
Nat-gas prices have some medium-term support on the outlook for tighter global LNG supplies. On March 19, Qatar reported “extensive damage” at the world’s largest natural gas export plant at Ras Laffan Industrial City. Qatar said the attacks by Iran damaged 17% of Ras Laffan’s LNG export capacity, a damage that will take three to five years to repair. The Ras Laffan plant accounts for about 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply, and a reduction in its capacity could boost US nat-gas exports. Also, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in Iran has sharply curtailed nat-gas supplies to Europe and Asia.
