June Nymex natural gas (NGM26) on Wednesday closed up +0.146 (+5.04%).
Nat-gas prices recovered from a 1.5-week low on Wednesday and settled sharply higher after updated US weather forecasts turned warmer, which sparked short covering in nat-gas futures. The Commodity Weather Group said Wednesday that above-average temperatures are expected across the western half of the US from June 1-10, which should boost nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power air-conditioning.
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Projections for higher US nat-gas production are negative for prices. On May 12, the EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US dry nat-gas production to 110.61 bcf/day from an April estimate of 109.60 bcf/day. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs posting a 2.5-year high in late February.
On April 17, nat-gas prices tumbled to a 1.5-year nearest-futures low amid robust US gas storage. EIA nat-gas inventories as of May 8 were +6.5% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling abundant US nat-gas supplies.
The outlook for the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed for the foreseeable future is supportive for nat-gas as the closure will curb Middle Eastern nat-gas supplies, potentially boosting US nat-gas exports to make up for the shortfall.
US (lower-48) dry gas production on Wednesday was 109.8 bcf/day (+1.9% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Wednesday was 70.1 bcf/day (+6.4% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Wednesday were 18.6 bcf/day (+4.8% w/w), according to BNEF.
Nat-gas prices have some medium-term support on the outlook for tighter global LNG supplies. On March 19, Qatar reported “extensive damage” at the world’s largest natural gas export plant at Ras Laffan Industrial City. Qatar said the attacks by Iran damaged 17% of Ras Laffan’s LNG export capacity, a damage that will take three to five years to repair. The Ras Laffan plant accounts for about 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply, and a reduction in its capacity could boost US nat-gas exports. Also, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in Iran has sharply curtailed nat-gas supplies to Europe and Asia.
