By Erwin Seba
HOUSTON, May 29 (Reuters) – Oil futures fell more than 2% on Friday, closing out their steepest weekly decline since early April as traders awaited word that the U.S., Israel and Iran had reached agreement on a ceasefire.
Brent crude futures for July, which expired on Friday, settled at $92.05 a barrel, down $1.66, or 1.8%. WTI U.S. oil futures finished at $87.36 a barrel, down $1.54 or 1.7%.
“Obviously, the market thinks the ceasefire will be all easy-peasy and is done and dusted,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital.
The three-month war between the U.S. and Iran has been marked by frequent chatter of an impending end to the conflict that would open the crucial Strait of Hormuz, used to transit one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply. Even with both sides suggesting an agreement was forthcoming, their characterizations of the deal were still somewhat different.
Iran’s Fars news agency said the agreement – which it has not decided yet to approve – required Iran to open the strait without restrictions but the Islamic Republic would reopen the waterway “according to its own pre-determined arrangements.” Iran has said after the conflict that it would regulate traffic through the strait, charging fees to transit.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said called again on Iran to immediately re-open the strait. The closure of the waterway has driven energy prices sharply higher worldwide. Recent sessions have been volatile, with swings by as much as $6 for both benchmarks on conflicting signals over a potential reopening of the strait.
“The questions are when are we going to open the strait? I wonder when are we going to hit the bottoms of the tanks,” Kilduff said. “I’m surprised prices aren’t higher.”
Brent has plunged by about 11% this week, its steepest weekly decline in seven weeks. WTI has dropped by more than 9% for its biggest weekly loss in six. Both benchmarks hit their lowest price since mid-April.
“While oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain restricted and oil inventories keep falling, the market focus remains on the possibility of a deal between the U.S. and Iran,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
“The price drop could be forcing some market players to close their long positions.”
The U.S. and Iran reached a tentative agreement on Thursday to extend a ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, sources told Reuters.
Traffic through the maritime chokepoint remains a small fraction of levels before the conflict. Analysts at ING said a reopening of the waterway would offer some immediate relief to the oil market, but a recovery is still uncertain.
