Where the AI trade is goes next

00:00 Speaker A Everything is cool now, including things that haven’t been cool for a long time. In fact, HPE is so cool that it’s up what, 30% or something this morning. So, it’s just so interesting to me, um, and the question I’ve been asking in recent weeks, especially after we saw, you know,…


Where the AI trade is goes next

00:00 Speaker A

Everything is cool now, including things that haven’t been cool for a long time. In fact, HPE is so cool that it’s up what, 30% or something this morning. So, it’s just so interesting to me, um, and the question I’ve been asking in recent weeks, especially after we saw, you know, the memory and storage rally, then we saw the Dell rally, even after it had already rallied, is like what’s left, right? What are the things that we have that where are we still going to be surprised in this market by a thesis that seems pretty well understood by now that the spending is huge on all this AI infrastructure. And yet you still have these companies coming out and surprising with the magnitude of it. It’s it’s just it’s a really interesting phenomenon that this keeps happening.

01:00 Speaker B

Yeah, and in a way the 1980s are calling. When you think about these companies that are now making all-time highs again, Dell, Cisco, Intel. A lot of it is because of the AI trade, but this is like a, you know, blast from the past in a lot of ways and there’s a lot of echoes to the 1980s if you think about it. Reagan era conservatism coming back, strength through power, uh uh peace through security, economic security. So it’s all kind of happening at the same time and there’s a ton of money chasing a lot of uh very particular group of stocks and companies right now, public and private.

01:47 Speaker A

Yeah, I mean, that’s the very 2020 spin on it is now we’re in an era where you have single stock options, where you have a lot of money in the market. And so not only do you get those vibes, but you get like these huge gains that we’ve seen. I mean, you’re like steeped in this stuff, Hal. I imagine you’re still surprised by some of these things that we’ve been seeing.

02:08 Hal

I was honestly, I was surprised that Dell and HP didn’t pop sooner only because everybody was talking about Nvidia for so long and it’s like, well, Nvidia doesn’t sell chips to Microsoft, Amazon, Google

02:22 Speaker A

directly, right?

02:23 Hal

Right. HP and Dell do, right? So they’ll go out and put in an order and then Dell and HP will go ahead and, you know, manufacture or work with, you know, Pegatron or, you know, Foxconn, Winston and and build these servers and then eventually they end up in those those data centers. So, you know, for a while it was like, well when is this going to start to to show up? And I had done a piece a while back talking about how all of this kind of fits together as part of a larger ecosystem and now, you know, obviously it’s starting to show up in the the revenue for these companies and people seeing uh the uh projections going forward. And so now they’re saying, oh, these are actually uh a big deal. We should be paying attention.

03:07 Speaker A

Right.

03:07 Hal

I think the the one spot uh that, you know, we we’ve gone through memory, we’re on CPUs, we’re on the servers. Now, I think the only other thing that really, you know, when it comes to these types of data centers is the actual networking infrastructure. And so, you know, there are things called Ncks uh there uh uh NPUs basically um where you know, you have a networking interface card and

03:26 Speaker A

And who makes that stuff?

03:27 Hal

Basically, uh the the same types of companies that we’ve been talking about the entire time, but I think that that’s going to become a a bigger portion of the conversation. Just because, you know, I mean, uh, you know, obviously Marvell doing very well because Jensen had said they’re going to, you know, blow up because essentially networking, right? And that’s that’s where it’s going to continue to go. Just because and you know, he the way he put it, I mean the guy just said something and you know, the stock blew up and it’s like, all right, well, okay, like, you know. Um, but it it does make sense in the fact that they are kind of disaggregating all of these types of data centers or or compute across these data centers, they got to link them together somehow. And so, you know, I mean we talked a while back about how Nvidia’s networking business was a multi-billion dollar business hidden underneath compute. So, you know, we’ll see other companies

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