This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), the software and cloud giant behind Azure, reported accelerating cloud growth just as Wall Street gets more comfortable with the biggest question hanging over the AI boom: Are those staggering infrastructure bills actually paying off? Microsoft shares climbed roughly 1.7% Monday morning, and JPMorgan sees the answer increasingly tilting toward yes. The bank pointed to Microsoft, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) as evidence that hyperscaler AI spending is feeding into stronger revenue, helping drive its 2026 year-end S&P 500 (SPY) target to 8,000 from 7,800.
The bull case is starting to get some muscle behind it. JPMorgan lifted its S&P 500 earnings estimate to $365 per share for 2026 and $420 for 2027, up from $350 and $390. Stronger cloud growth, expanding backlogs and improving cash-flow visibility across the hyperscalers helped fuel that confidence. Microsoft is right in the middle of it. Azure growth is expected at roughly 45%, while the company plans to spend around $50 billion on capital expenditures in the current fiscal quarter alone. That number is enormous. But if Azure keeps growing anywhere near this pace, the conversation changes fast. Microsoft is no longer just spending heavily on AI. It is showing investors why it is spending heavily.
And the valuation does not look stretched against GuruFocus’ estimate. Microsoft traded at $509.07 on Aug. 10 versus a GF Value of $575.48, putting the stock roughly 11.54% below that benchmark. That discount adds another layer to the story, but execution now matters more than the headline number. Microsoft is pouring tens of billions into AI infrastructure, so Azure needs to keep humming, backlog needs to turn into revenue and cash flow needs to keep up. If those pieces fall into place, the AI capex debate gets much simpler. Microsoft’s giant spending bill stops looking like the risk. It starts looking like the fuel.
