Amazon is doubling down on Prime Day.
The retail giant’s marquee shopping event kicks off July 8 and will run for 96 hours, twice as long as last year’s. The move has Bank of America making a bold sales call: Amazon could rake in more than $21 billion in gross merchandise volume (GMV).
“Extending the savings window suggests that Amazon has greater retail logistics capacity to offer promotions, and that inventory availability is not a constraint,” Bank of America analysts wrote in a research note.
If that prediction pans out, it would mark a nearly 60% jump from last year’s Prime Day performance and represent more than 10% of Amazon’s projected third quarter GMV. The firm expects sales from Amazon’s own inventory, known as first-party, or 1P, to rise 55% year over year to $11.5 billion, while third-party sales, or 3P, could grow 67% to $10 billion.
Amazon’s stock is flat on the year, lagging the S&P 500’s 6% gain. Bank of America has a price target of $248 on the stock, about a 13% upside from current levels.
BoA analysts suggest the longer shopping event reflects improvements in Amazon’s robotics, AI, and inventory placement efforts. The company has been growing its suite of AI-powered shopping tools, including Alexa+ savings trackers, personalized deal notifications, and virtual assistant Rufus.
Despite the positive tone around Prime Day, founder Jeff Bezos raised some eyebrows this week after offloading $737 million worth of stock, according to new SEC filings. That brings his total 2025 share sales to over $8.5 billion.
While sizable, Bezos’s selling hasn’t shaken analysts’ faith in the shock. Amazon’s advertising and AWS businesses remain key growth drivers, and analysts broadly view Prime Day as a vehicle for attracting new Prime subscribers, boosting ad revenue, and strengthening Amazon’s brand competition from Walmart, Target, and Best Buy.
Still, there are potential downsides. A longer Prime Day could pressure third quarter margins, particularly if shoppers flock to lower-margin categories or if steep promotions bite into profitability. Tariff concerns also remain a wild card, particularly for consumer electronics and imported goods.
Beyond retail, Prime Day is also expected to boost Amazon’s advertising business as the company pushes more ad inventory through Prime Video and recently expanded its video ad offerings. Looking ahead, investors will be watching how effectively Amazon translates Prime Day buzz into long-term engagement.
Separately, Amazon is investing $4 billion through 2026 to enhance rural delivery services as it looks to reach 4,000 US locations.
