David Rosenberg has a question for his critics: Does a so-called “perma-bear” make investors money? He also has an answer.
The top economist and Rosenberg Research founder — who’s known for making persistently bearish calls on the US economy and markets — said that he put his money where his mouth was by creating a fund based on his gloomy predictions.
So far, it’s paid off. The portfolio, called the Rosie Macro Fund, is up 28% this year, Rosenberg said on Tuesday. That handily outpaces the broader S&P 500’s 14% gain year-to-date.
Rosenberg Research/Bloomberg
The portfolio, which Rosenberg also called his “sleep at night” fund, outperformed the benchmark index by over 1,200 basis points from February through April of this year, when tariffs tanked the broader market. The fund also outperformed the typical 60/40 portfolio by 460 basis points over that time frame, he added.
“Let’s see in real time how ‘perma bear’ David Rosenberg performs when he invests around his macro and market views,” Rosenberg wrote. “So much for being a ‘perma bear,’ don’t you think?” he added of the fund’s returns.
Rosenberg, who recently said he believed the stock market was in a “gigantic price bubble,” said his firm put the fund together in early 2023. Its investments incorporate his “highest-conviction ideas” about the economy across stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities, with special emphasis on preserving capital and cash flows.
Here’s everything that makes up the portfolio:
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Rosie Macro Fund holdings
Rosenberg said his firm was in the process of turning the portfolio into a listed exchange-traded fund, which could launch as early as January.
“Again, only for investors who don’t like to lose money or take on risks that aren’t worth the price. I don’t invest in bubbles, and I never invest in 2 standard deviation events, unless these events show mispricing in terms of undue undervaluation,” he said.
Rosenberg, who successfully called the dot-com and housing crashes in the 2000s, has doubled down on his view that the US economy is poised to enter a recession. He’s also suggested that stocks are heading toward a period of “negative returns” and has generally held a pessimistic stance on the market over the last several years, bucking the bullish consensus that’s gripped Wall Street amid the stock market’s record-setting rally.
