FTAI Aviation Ltd (NASDAQ:FTAI) stock is down 2.7% to trade at $115.34, heading for its lowest close since May 23. The aerospace concern is down 19.9% in 2025, but if past is precedent, could be ready to rally.
FTAI is within one standard deviation of its 50-day moving average. For the purpose of this study, Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White defines that as the equity trading above the moving average 80% of the time over the last two months, and closing north of the trendline in eight of the last 10 sessions.
Per White’s data, 11 similar signals have occurred during the past three years. FTAI was higher one month later 82% of the time, averaging a one-month gain of 10.1%. From its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would put the stock back in its consolidation area, and eat into its nine-month deficit of 13.3%. Also worth noting on the chart below is the double bottom from earlier in the summer.
A short squeeze could nudge the shares along as well. Short interest fell 15.4% in the two most recent reporting periods, yet the 6.27 million shares sold short still account for 6.2% of FTAI’s total available float. At the equity’s average pace of trading, it would take shorts almost four trading days to buy back their bearish bets.
Options are an attractive choice, per the equity’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) of 56% that sits in the 20th percentile of its annual range. This suggests options traders have lower-than-usual volatility expectations. FTAI has consistently exceeded their volatility estimates though, as reflected in its Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) score of 90 out of 100. In other words, the security has historically delivered larger-than-expected price swings.
