Aluminium price has recovered well in the past week. The Aluminium Futures contract traded on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) fell to a low of ₹248.15 per kg last week and has risen back well from there. It is currently trading at ₹253.50 per kg.
Outlook
Broadly, the contract has been oscillating in a sideways range for some time now. The trading range has been ₹246-₹256 since mid-June.
Within this range, the contract is now moving up from near the lower end of the range. That leaves the chances high for the MCX Aluminium Futures contract to test ₹256, the upper end of the range, in the near term.
Failure to breach ₹256 can take the contract down again. In that case, the sideways range will continue to remain intact.
A breakout on either side of ₹246-256 will only determine the next leg of move. A break below ₹246 can take the contract down to ₹244-243 initially. A further break below ₹243 will be very bearish. It will increase the danger of revisiting ₹230 levels on the downside.
On the other hand, if the MCX Aluminium contract manages to breach ₹256, it can rise to ₹260-261 – the next important resistance zone. A decisive break above ₹261 will boost the bullish momentum. It will then have the potential to take the contract up to ₹275-277 over the medium term.
Trade Strategy
Since the contract is stuck inside a range for a long time, we suggest traders to stay out of the market. Wait for the range breakout and take trades accordingly
Published on August 25, 2025
