Investing.com — Investor concerns about OpenAI’s potential to disrupt the internet landscape, particularly Google, may be overstated, according to Mizuho.
In a new note, Mizuho analyst Lloyd Walmsley said that “competitive risks from OpenAI across the Internet landscape, particularly at Google, have been topic #1 in over 100 investor conversations.”
However, Walmsley argued that these worries echo past disruption fears that ultimately failed to materialize.
“We see parallels with previous episodes of disruption fears that ultimately did not pan out,” the analyst wrote, citing examples such as Amazon’s entry into groceries and health care, and TikTok’s challenge to Meta.
Mizuho stated that it remains “wide-eyed about the potential risk” but believes many investors are “jumping to quantifying impacts premised on widespread product success from AI natives that may not pan out at all.”
The note added that after OpenAI’s recent Atlas launch, competitive fears are likely to recede as we refocus on fundamentals with earnings.
Specifically for Google, the Mizuho analyst remarked that the upcoming Gemini 3 launch “could further tilt sentiment for Alphabet shares towards AI-winner, at least near term.”
The firm also pointed out that “time per user data shows continued deceleration at OpenAI,” with usage “stable but not seeing a significant post-summer rebound,” according to SimilarWeb.
On the consumer side, Mizuho said OpenAI’s Sora app “continues to dominate the top of the iOS App Store,” but the firm sees “a low probability that Sora meaningfully disrupts Meta or YouTube.”
Mizuho added that Meta has “managed the rise of Snap and TikTok” and is likely to repeat that playbook with generative AI.
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