The major indexes capped of a second straight stretch of weekly losses as investors digested a wave of geopolitical headlines and navigated what remains an unsettled trading environment to start 2026.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) barely cracked above the flat line by less than 0.1% on Friday, losing 0.4% in total on the week, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell into the red by 0.7% on the week. Despite finishing Friday on a gain of 0.3%, the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also fell into the red for the week, shedding roughly 0.1% in total.
The breakout price action for the week came in the natural gas (NG=F) market, where futures spiked 75% in the five trading sessions leading up to Thursday as Winter Storm Fern brings Arctic cold and snow to more than 150 million people across the US.
The biggest headlines last week emerged from the world leaders and business luminaries who gathered in Switzerland for the World Economic Forum in Davos. President Trump and Europe’s leaders agreed on the “framework” of a deal over Greenland, but the forum revealed the schism forming between the US and some of its major Western allies.
Currencies have largely taken a back seat to stocks since the post-pandemic market rally took hold and investors focused on earnings growth, AI-driven optimism, and the steady resilience of US equities.
But that may be starting to change, according to Macquarie global FX & rates strategist Thierry Wizman.
“While a Greenland ‘deal’ solves the immediate problem of tariffs and/or invasion, it doesn’t solve the core issue of the seeming mutual alienation of the US from its allies,” Wizman wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.
“It’s in that spirit that we can still talk about a fracturing, more dangerous, world, in which the US is less vaunted, the USD loses its reserve currency status, and where the US focuses instead on the Western Hemisphere as its sole and defendable redoubt.”
And while the US backed off tariff threats over Greenland, and the EU suspended a package of retaliatory trade measures, investors still appear keen to find safe haven outside of the dollar.
Over the past five days, EUR/USD, the most traded FX pair in the world, has picked up nearly 2% as the euro has strengthened against the dollar.
At the same time, the dollar has fallen more than 2.7% against the Swiss franc, a sign of traders hedging against systemic instability. The dollar also fell roughly 1.8% against the yen as the Japanese currency surged through the end of the week.
Investors will turn their attention ahead to one of the busiest weeks of the year, with the Federal Reserve’s January meeting on Wednesday coming alongside a slew of key earnings reports, including releases from four of the “Magnificent Seven” cohort.
Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL) are all queued up to report fourth quarter results — the first three companies report Wednesday after the close, while Apple goes after Thursday’s bell — with investor attention likely to remain centered on AI spending and these companies’ ambitions in this new paradigm.
On the central banking front, investors are nearly certain the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in their current range of 3.5%-3.75%. As of Friday, data from the CME Group showed traders assigning a 97% chance the Fed holds rates on Wednesday.
The bigger news for the Fed, most likely, will be any further developments on President Trump’s pick for the next Fed chair after Powell finishes his term in the position in May. According to odds on Polymarket as of Friday afternoon, BlackRock’s global CIO for fixed income, Rick Rieder, has been rising quickly as a prospect and has become the favorite to earn the nod from Trump.
Former Fed official Kevin Warsh and Trump’s top economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, who had long been seen as the leading candidates for the nomination, stood at 33% and 6% odds, respectively, as of Friday afternoon. Speaking with CNBC in Davos, Trump said he thought Rieder was “very impressive.”
President Donald Trump, center, holds up a signed Board of Peace charter during the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
When two of the market’s biggest tech giants report earnings on Wednesday, investors will be watching for two things: How much are these companies planning to spend on their AI and cloud computing arms race, and how are they planning to fund it?
Meta CFO Susan Li boosted spending projections from a range of $66 billion-$72 billion to between $70 billion and $72 billion on the company’s third quarter call in October, while Microsoft CFO Amy Hood said the company would spend more in 2026 than the $88.2 billion it spent in 2025.
Both companies will report results after the close on Wednesday.
Amazon and Alphabet are expected to report in the first week of February.
To fund this investment, hyperscalers are now issuing so much debt they are changing the landscape of investment-grade credit, Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk wrote in a note on Friday. The tech sector issued nearly $700 billion in investment-grade debt over the past quarter, closing in on the just-over $800 billion in issuance by the financial sector, which has long led the credit market. (Disclosure: Yahoo Finance is owned by Apollo Global Management.)
While the share of people citing an “AI bubble” is falling, Bank of America strategists Haim Israel and Menka Bajaj wrote in a recent client note that investors can’t not consider the risks of bottomless spending and sky-high valuations.
“AI is a fundamental revolution that is about to change everything, but we cannot ignore valuation debate and timing,” the strategists wrote.
The tech sector is also having to navigate the fickle winds of public opinion, especially around the data center build-out that is sucking up so much cash. Rising energy costs, heavy water usage, job security, and other concerns have all risen to the forefront, Jefferies strategists wrote in a client note on Friday — with ratepayer electricity bills perhaps chief among them.
“AI investments sit directly in the cross-hairs of the ongoing debate around affordability,” the Jefferies strategists wrote.
For the tech companies getting ready to share their first major spending projections of 2026, the question will be: Can that spending be converted into legitimate productivity gains and other real-world benefits, or will it all fall into, as Israel and Bajaj wrote, “mere hype”?
Chairman and CEO of Microsoft Satya Nadella delivers a speech during the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland on January 20, 2026. (Photo by Harun Ozalp/Anadolu via Getty Images) ·Anadolu via Getty Images
In a market swirling with geopolitical turmoil — from Venezuela and Iran to Greenland and US-European tensions — metals have continued to dominate conversation, perhaps nowhere more prominently than in gold (GC=F).
Gold picked up just under 8% last week to top $4,900 per troy ounce for the first time ever on Thursday, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its year-end price target to $5,400.
Silver (SI=F), too, has kept its rally going as investors flock to flight-to-safety investments, pushing the white metal past $100 per troy ounce for the first time on Friday. And platinum (PL=F), a diversifier for store-of-value assets, has — like silver — already surged upward by more than 30% this year.
Analysts have pegged the rally to the dollar’s weakening position in an increasingly fractious global risk environment, sputtering demand for government debt, and expectations that the Fed is likely to keep easing policy.
“It used to be the case that any eruption of geopolitical tension tended to rally the world around the US dollar,” wrote Macquarie’s Wizman in a client note on Friday.
“But what is happening now is different. Instead of flocking to the USD, traders flock to gold and its neighbors on the periodic table (e.g., silver, platinum) and defense stocks, and the USD has little to show for its erstwhile vauntedness.”
The metals rally has also continued on the industrial side, where a combination of supply chain politics and market fundamentals has kept prices rising.
Copper futures (HG=F), which returned more than 30% in 2025, have picked up nearly 4% in 2026 as data center-driven demand continues.
Spot prices on lithium, crucial to the EV build-out but largely controlled by China, have risen an even stronger 44% on the year, while tin has surged by nearly 30%, according to data from Trading Economics.
And demand is only expected to grow as Big Tech doubles down on its plans for mass build-outs of data centers and other AI infrastructure.
Despite a tough macroeconomic backdrop, writes HSBC metals analyst Jonathan Brandt, most metals prices are at or close to record levels, and “supply constraints and strong demand from energy transition and AI should support most metal markets in 2026.”
The metals market, Brandt wrote, is facing a perfect storm of demand for safe-haven assets, trade restrictions and production caps, and underinvestment that left the sector unprepared for this massive demand surge.
“The combination of these factors could lead to a ‘super-cycle’ in select metals, with prices potentially staying well above the historical average for the foreseeable future.”
Construction continues at the Lithium Nevada Corp. mine site Thacker Pass project on April 24, 2023, near Orovada, Nev. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
Economic data: Chicago Fed national activity index, November (-0.21 previously); Durable goods orders, November (+3% expected, -2.2% previously); Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, January (-10.9 previously)
Earnings calendar: Southern Copper (SCCO), Nucor (NUE), Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY), Brown & Brown (BRO), Steel Dynamics (STLD), W.R. Berkley (WRB), Graco Inc. (GGG), AGNC Investment (AGNC), Crane (CR), Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)
Economic data: ADP weekly employment change, week ended Jan. 3 (+8,000 previously); FHFA house price index, month-on-month, November (+0.4% previously); Richmond Fed manufacturing index, January (-7 previously); Conference Board consumer confidence, January (90.0 expected, 89.1 previously); Dallas Fed services activity, January (-3.3 previously)
Earnings calendar: UnitedHealth (UNH), RTX (RTX), Boeing (BA), NextEra Energy (NEE), Texas Instruments (TXN), Union Pacific (UNP), HCA Healthcare (HCA), Northrop Grumman (NOC), UPS (UPS), General Motors (GM), Seagate Technology (STX), Sysco (SYY), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Nextpower (NXT), Invesco (IVZ), American Airlines (AAL)
Economic data: FOMC rate decision, Jan. 28 (no change expected); MBA mortgage applications, week ended Jan. 23 (14.1% previously)
Earnings calendar: Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA), ASML Holdings N.V. (ASML), Lam Research Corporation (LRCX), IBM (IBM), Amphenol (APH), GE Vernova (GEV), Danaher (DHR), AT&T (T), ServiceNow (NOW), Progressive (PGR), Starbucks (SBUX), Automatic Data Processing (ADP), General Dynamics (GD), Waste Management (WM), Elevance Health (ELV), Corning (GLW), MSCI (MSCI), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Levi Strauss (LEVI)
Earnings calendar: AAPL (AAPL), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Caterpillar (CAT), SAP SE (SAP), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), KLA Corporation (KLAC), Blackstone (BX), Honeywell International (HON), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Stryker (SYK), Parker-Hannifin (PH), Comcast (CMCSA), Sanofi (SNY), Altria (MO), Marsh & McLennan (MSN.DU), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Trane Technologies (TT), Deutsche Bank (DB), Royal Caribbean (RCL), Sandisk (SNDK), L3Harris Technologies (LHX), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Valero Energy (VLO), Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (BIP), Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
Economic data: Producer price index, month-on-month, December (+0.3% expected, +0.2% previously); PPI, ex food and energy, month-on-month, December (+0.3% expected, 0% previously); PPI, year-on-year, December (+3% previously); PPI, ex food and energy, year-on-year, December (+3% previously)
Earnings calendar: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), American Express (AXP), Verizon (VZ), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), Aon (AON), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Canadian National Railway (CNI), Air Products and Chemicals (APD), Imperial Oil (IMO), SoFi Technologies (SOFI), Charter Communications (CHTR), Nomura (NMR), Franklin Resources (BEN), Janus Henderson (JHG)
Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance
