Nassim Taleb issued a new warning for those enjoying the AI rally.
The author of “The Black Swan” recently sounded an alarm that the artificial intelligence-driven rally is entering a more fragile phase.
This can potentially lead to escalating volatility and potential bankruptcies in parts of the tech sector.
Related: FTX, Luna, Celsius, Voyager: The Year of Crypto Bankruptcies
Taleb argues markets are underpricing structural risks while overestimating the durability of today’s AI leaders, Bloomberg reported. Yes, artificial intelligence will generate enormous profits, he says, but history suggests early pioneers are often displaced.
During a SeaFair event hosted by Universa Investments in Miami, Taleb said,
“Someone will make a lot of money in AI. It’s not guaranteed to be the companies that make up the AI trade today.”
Currently, the AI market is dominated by a handful of names such as Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD), Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and so forth.
The S&P 500 recently slipped amid tariff uncertainty and mounting AI anxiety. A narrow group of AI-linked stocks has driven much of the equity rally over the past two years, leaving broader indexes vulnerable if leadership rotates.
Meanwhile, two competing pressures are building. First, AI tools are disrupting subscription-based software models as coding becomes easier.
Second, tech giants are taking on heavy debt to fund AI infrastructure that may not pay off for years.
Taleb’s bottom line is blunt.
“Tail-risk across sectors is structurally underpriced. The risk is not a small correction. It’s a large drawdown.”
He believes the rally could continue in the near term. The bigger issue is the scale of potential downside.
“You always need hedges,” he said. “These drawdowns are not easily predictable.”
The AI fragility debate is not just an equity story.
Research firm ByteTree warned in a Feb. 4 note that Bitcoin (BTC) has started behaving like an “internet stock.” Its five-year performance closely mirrors software equities, and its correlation with the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF (IGV) sits at 0.73.
IGV, which is heavily weighted toward Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL), Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) and Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE), had fallen 18% in a month. Bitcoin had dropped 20% over the same period.
“There can be no doubt that Bitcoin has been caught up in the technology selloff,” ByteTree wrote.
Apart from this correlation, AI has started influencing many Bitcoin miner to pivot their business strategies. Some are even exiting entirely from mining operations for AI, something which is comparatively more sustainable and profitable.
For instance, Bitcoin mining and AI cloud firm IREN Ltd (NASDAQ: IREN) is profiting from its pivot to AI, with the stock clocking 417.65% increase over the past year and bagging confidence from the likes of Cantor Fitzgerald.
Related: Gold, stocks, crypto extend losses amid ‘extreme fear’ among investors
But not everyone agrees that Bitcoin is simply a tech beta.
Billionaire trader Arthur Hayes recently argued that Bitcoin is a “global fiat liquidity fire alarm.” When it diverges sharply from the Nasdaq-100, investors should pay attention.
Since hitting its all-time high in early October, Bitcoin has fallen while the Nasdaq has remained relatively flat. To Hayes, that decoupling signals tightening liquidity and looming credit stress.
He blames rapid AI adoption that could displace a meaningful share of white-collar knowledge workers, impairing their ability to service debt. If even 20% lose their jobs, banks could face hundreds of billions in credit losses, triggering regional bank failures and deposit flight.
“This AI financial crisis will restart the money printing machine for real,” Hayes wrote.
In that framework, Bitcoin’s slide toward $60,000 may already reflect early pricing of deflationary stress, before it becomes visible in traditional markets.
Taleb, for his part, is watching gold, which has surged roughly 30% since October. Persistent U.S. deficits, sanctions policy, and geopolitical tensions are raising questions about the durability of dollar dominance.
Add the risk of an oil shock tied to U.S.–Iran tensions, and the picture grows more complex.
On Feb. 24, after a volatile morning, the Nasdaq 100 closed 1.09% higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.76% higher.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has climbed 4.9% in the past 24 hours, trading at $66,074.09 at press time.
Related: Bitcoin, Crypto Tumble in Tech Stock Rout
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Feb 25, 2026, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
Source link
