BMO Capital Cuts Murphy Oil (MUR) Price Target to $35, Cites Softer 2026 Production Outlook

Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE:MUR) is included among the Dividend Champions, Contenders, and Challengers List: 15 Highest Yielding Stocks.

On February 3, BMO Capital trimmed its price recommendation on Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE:MUR) to $35 from $37. It maintained a Market Perform rating on the stock. The firm said it lowered its estimates after Murphy posted Q4 results that largely matched expectations. Looking further out, BMO flagged a softer 2026 production outlook, pointing to pressure from Montney royalties and the Gulf of America. Even so, the analyst noted that Murphy still ranks well on free cash flow breakeven metrics and is expected to keep leverage at modest levels.

Speaking on the Q4 2025 earnings call, President and CEO Eric Hambly said production topped guidance for both the quarter and the full year. He credited the beat to some of the strongest onshore wells the company has drilled to date, along with consistently high uptime at its core offshore assets.

Hambly also highlighted clear progress on costs. Lease operating expenses were down roughly 20% from last year, and capital spending came in below guidance. He said a portion of those savings reflected efficiency gains in the Eagle Ford Shale program.

On the exploration front, Hambly characterized the quarter as uneven but overall positive. He said the appraisal at Hai Su Vang in the Golden Sea Lion field delivered strong results, while both exploration wells in the Gulf of America led to oil discoveries. That said, the Civette well offshore Côte d’Ivoire did not find commercial hydrocarbons.

Digging deeper into Vietnam, Hambly noted that the appraisal well intersected about 429 feet of net oil pay and did not reach the oil-water contact. Based on that outcome, he suggested the resource potential could end up well above the company’s initial midpoint estimate of 170 million barrels of oil equivalent.

Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE:MUR) is a global exploration and production company with a mix of onshore and offshore assets. Its output includes crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, primarily from the U.S. and Canada, while its exploration efforts are focused on select regions around the world.

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