Bullion & Crude: Outlook uncertain

Finally, some reality check happened in the precious metals as both gold and silver prices witnessed a considerable correction on Friday – gold ($4,895/ounce) lost nearly 9 per cent whereas silver ($85.2/ounce) plummeted 26.3 per cent. For the week though, the former was down 1.8 per cent and the latter lost 17.6 per cent.

In the domestic market, gold futures (₹1,49,653/10 gm) and silver futures (₹2,91,925/kg) crashed by 11.7 per cent and 27 per cent respectively on Friday. Consequently, the weekly loss for the former and the latter stood at 4.1 per cent and 12.8 per cent respectively.

On the other hand, crude oil prices rose last week. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($69.30/barrel) was up 5.2 per cent whereas crude oil futures in the domestic market (₹5,930/barrel) gained 5.3 per cent. Here is our analysis:

Gold ($4,895)

The spot price of gold in the international market hit a record high of $5,602 on Thursday before the sell-off that followed. It may be too early to call the recent fall as the beginning of a downtrend. The 21-day moving average lies at $4,752 and below it is a trendline support at $4,530. Until these levels hold, the broader uptrend will remain intact.

But there are challenges ahead; $5,150 and $5,600 are resistance levels. This also brings the possibility of a near-term consolidation with the broader region between $4,530 and $5,600. That said, a rally past $5,600 can give fresh momentum to the bulls, possibly taking it to $6,000-mark.

MCX-Gold (₹1,49,653)

Gold futures hit an all-time high of ₹1,80,779 on Thursday. But then the contract saw a quick reversal and ended at ₹1,49,653 on Friday. The bulls have not given up yet as there is a support at ₹1,46,700, its 21-day moving average, and a demand zone between ₹1,43,500 and ₹1,45,000. These cluster of supports can limit the downtrend.

If there is a rebound on the back of any of these levels, gold futures could face potential resistance at ₹1,60,000 and ₹1,76,000. In the near term, the contract might stay within ₹1,43,500 and ₹1,76,000. Nevertheless, a daily close above ₹1,76,000 can trigger a fresh rally to ₹1,90,000 and ₹1,95,000.

Silver ($85.20)

The spot price of silver touched a fresh high of $121.67 on Thursday before facing a considerable fall. The decline dragged it below the key $100-dollar mark. But from a bigger picture, the bull trend is not invalidated.

There is a notable support at $75, where the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement of the prior upswing and the 50-day moving average coincides. Just below this is another potential base of $70. So long as $70 holds, bulls will be in the game. In case the support at $70 is taken down, the price can see a decline to $55.

But if the bulls regain traction and push the price up, silver is likely to face resistance at $100 and $120. In the short term, the price could remain within a broad price band of $70 and $120.

MCX-Silver (₹2,91,925)

Silver futures surged to mark an all-time high of ₹4,20,048 on Thursday. But then the contract quickly changed direction and saw a substantial fall. At this juncture, we cannot say the outlook has turned bearish as the contract is now hovering near the 21-day moving average.

Notable support can be spotted between ₹2,50,000 and ₹2,53,650, the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement of the preceding uptrend. So, silver futures can resume the rally either from the current level of ₹2,91,925 or after seeing a decline to ₹2,50,000-2,53,650 price band. But the upside will face barriers at ₹3,42,000 and ₹4,00,000.

Overall, given that the recent rally has been very quick, there is a good possibility for some pause. That said, the price can swing between the broad price region between ₹2,50,000 and ₹4,00,000.

Brent futures ($69.30)

Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rallied last week and marked a higher high. It surpassed a hurdle at $66.50, and the price action appears positive.

However, the contract now faces a resistance of $71, where a trendline coincides. This is unlikely to reverse the trend but can lead to a corrective decline, possibly to $66.50. A breakout of $71, either from the current level or after a dip to $66.50, can lift Brent crude oil futures to $75 in the near term. Resistance above $75 is at $80.

MCX-Crude oil futures (₹5,930)

Crude oil futures rallied last week and hit a six-month high of ₹6,135 on Thursday before ending the week lower at ₹5,930. The price action gives the contract a positive inclination. We expect further rally in the contract.

However, from the current level, there might be a minor drop in price, possibly to ₹5,750. Eventually, crude oil futures can go past the resistance at ₹6,000 and touch ₹6,500 in the near term. Thereafter, we might see another price correction.

Published on January 31, 2026