Precious metals witnessed some moderation in price last week. Gold ($3,369/ounce) lost 1.9 per cent and silver ($36/ounce) was down nearly 1 per cent last week. Similarly, in the domestic market, gold futures (₹99,109/10 gm) depreciated 1.2 per cent and silver futures (₹1,06,224/kg) was down 0.3 per cent.
Gold ($3,369)
The yellow metal was on a decline through the week in the global market. However, it has not broken the uptrend. There are key support levels at $3,300 and $3,200.
For the short-term trend to turn bearish, the support at a further lower level of $3,120 should be taken out. In that case, we can expect a fall to $3,000 or even lower levels.
In the short term we expect some consolidation between $3,300 and $3,430. An eventual breakout of the latter can trigger a rally to $3,500.
MCX-Gold (₹99,109)
Gold futures (Aug) hit a fresh high of ₹1,01,078 last Monday. But then it saw a decline. As key support levels are holding well, the outlook remains positive.
While there might be some sideways movement, possibly between ₹96,500 and ₹1,01,100, it will surpass the latter at some point and rise to ₹1,03,500 and ₹1,05,000.
In case the price slips below ₹96,500, gold futures can drop further to ₹95,000.
Trade strategy: Last week, we suggested gold futures long at an average price of ₹99,388. Retain this trade with stop-loss at ₹98,000. When the contract rises to ₹1,02,000, tighten the stop-loss to ₹1,01,000. On a rally to ₹1,03,000, alter the stop-loss to ₹1,02,250. Exit at ₹1,03,500.
Silver ($36)
Silver saw a considerable rally last Tuesday. However, it could not sustain and scaled back. That said, the uptrend remains and the decline is expected to be short-lived.
From the current level, it can probably dip to $35 or even to $34.50. But a fall beyond the latter is less likely. Once the uptrend resumes, it can rise to $38 quickly.
MCX-Silver (₹1,06,224)
Silver futures (Jul) shot up to hit a record high of ₹1,09,748 on Wednesday. But there was no follow-through rally and the price dropped.
Nevertheless, the contract is above the important support level of ₹1,03,500. So long as this holds, the bulls will have an upper hand.
A resumption of a rally, either from the current level or after further moderation to ₹1,04,000, can take silver futures to ₹1,11,000 and then to ₹1,15,000.
Trade strategy: Hold on to the longs initiated at ₹1,06,200. Target and stop-loss can be ₹1,11,000 and ₹1,04,000 respectively.
Published on June 21, 2025