Gold and silver made a strong start for the week but then lost sheen in the second half. The trigger for the fall came after the longest government shutdown in the US ended on Wednesday. The hopes for a rate cut from the US Federal Reserve in its December meeting has reduced as government shutdown has created a vacuum in the economic data release. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of a 25-basis point rate cut in December has come down from 66.9 per cent a week ago to 4.4 per cent now.
Gold made a high of $4,245 per ounce and came down from there to close the week at $4,082. Silver on the other hand surged to a high of $54.40 and fell back to close the week at $50.50
On the domestic front the Gold and Silver Futures contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange have also come down from their highs. The contracts closed the week at ₹1,23,561 per 10 gm and ₹1,56,018 per kg respectively.
Gold ($4,082)
The fall last week gives an early sign of a peak in place. A crucial support is around $3,900 which can be tested this week. A break below $3,900 will confirm the bearish trend reversal. Such a break can take gold price down to $3,825-3,800 initially. It will also keep the downside open to see $3,730-3,700 eventually in the coming weeks.
To avoid this fall, gold has to sustain above $3,900 and rise past $4,100. In that case, a revisit of $4,300-$4,400.
MCX Gold (₹1,23,561/10 gm)
A fall to $1,17,800 looks likely from here. Failure to bounce back from there can drag it further down to $1,15,400.
To avoid this fall, the contract has to rise above ₹1,28,000 from here. Only then a rise back to ₹1,32,000 and higher levels will come into the picture again.
Trade strategy
Considering the risk/reward ratio, we suggest traders to stay out of the market.
Silver ($50.50)
The reversal last week from around $54.40 indicates a possible double top formation on the chart. This is a bearish reversal pattern.
Immediate support is at $49.30. A break below it can drag the price down to $47 and even $45.50. An eventual break below $45.50 will confirm the bearish double top pattern. It can drag the price down to $42-41 initially. From a big picture, it will also keep the door open for silver price to tumble towards $36, the target level of the double top pattern.
MCX Silver (₹1,56,018/kg)
The contract has immediate support in the ₹1,50,500-1,49,500 region. A break below ₹1,49,500 can take the contract down to ₹1,44,600 in the near term. Such a fall will also keep the contract under pressure to see ₹1,38,700 on the downside eventually.
Trade strategy
Go short on a break below ₹1,49,500. Keep the stop-loss at ₹1,51,200. Trail the stop-loss down to ₹1,48,400 when the contract falls to ₹1,47,200. Revise the stop-loss further down to ₹1,47,000 and ₹1,46,200 when the contract touches ₹1,46,300 and ₹1,45,400 respectively. Exit the shorts at ₹1,44,800
Published on November 15, 2025
