TMC The Metals Company stock has been a huge winner in 2025, and its share price has more than quadrupled year to date.
The company has seen huge gains as the importance of the the United States’ domestic mineral sourcing capabilities has come into focus.
TMC is a very risky investment, but there are realistic scenarios in which the stock could keep rocketing higher.
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TMC The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) has been one of the market’s most explosive stocks across 2025’s trading. Even after a recent pullback, the company’s share price has surged roughly 368% year to date as of this writing.
TMC’s huge gains have been powered by expectations that regulatory shifts and other political dynamics will fast-track the seabed mining specialist’s path to operational deployment and rapid growth. If you’re wondering whether the mining company has what it takes to turn a $10,000 investment into $50,000 or more over the next five years, read on for a look at key dynamics that could shape the stock’s performance over that time frame.
TMC’s business is still in a pre-revenue state, and its stock is a risky investment candidate. On the other hand, some key dynamics have been moving in the company’s favor — and there are feasible outcomes that could result in its share price surging far above current levels.
President Donald Trump signed an executive order in April to expedite permitting applications for seabed mining operations, and TMC responded by submitting several applications for regulatory approvals. Seabed mining capabilities could be crucial to helping to improve the United States’ ability to source rare earth minerals domestically. Along those lines, the recent pullback for TMC stock has actually been driven by signs suggesting that the Trump administration could reach a trade agreement with China that secures future access to Chinese minerals.
With a market capitalization of roughly $1.9 billion, TMC is still a relatively small company. Its stock is also a highly speculative investment play. While the company’s shares come with a very high level of investment risk, I think there’s actually a very good chance that its valuation will bound well above current levels. Whether or not the company’s stock can deliver 5x returns over the next five years remains to be seen, but geopolitical dynamics and the importance of rare earth mineral sourcing suggest the potential is there even if that outcome is far from a safe bet.
