// May 2, 2025
(Image source: Capgemini.)
The Capgemini Research Institute has published its 2025 World Property and Casualty Insurance Report, offering a stark assessment of how the aging of the global population will reshape the property/casualty insurance industry by mid-century. The report finds that demographic trends—particularly the rising ratio of seniors to working-age adults—will have sweeping implications for product design, risk concentration, and workforce availability, and calls for a shift toward automation, modular insurance models, and proactive risk management.
Adam Denninger, Global Industry Leader, Insurance, Capgemini.
Speaking with Insurance Innovation Reporter, Adam Denninger, Global Industry Leader for Insurance at Capgemini (Paris), characterizes the demographic transformation as both unprecedented and irreversible. “For the first time in history, we’re seeing prolonged structural declines in population in many countries,” Denninger comments. “And you’ll eventually see it in all countries, probably.”
According to the report, by 2050 there will be 26 seniors for every 100 working-age individuals—up from 16 today. Nearly 70 percent of the global population will live in urban centers, with almost half over the age of 50. These changes, Capgemini asserts, will alter consumer behavior, depress demand for traditional personal lines products, and significantly increase exposure to natural catastrophes.
“You’re going to see a lot of much older people in these big economies,” Denninger says. “That means also that there’s a whole lot less buying of stuff—the houses that we live in, the cars that we need. And that means, quite simply, that the amount of insurance needed is going to go down.”
Urban migration and disaster risk will compound the challenge. “There will be far more risk concentration in urban environments,” Denninger says. “When a catastrophe hits, it’s going to do far more damage to insurance companies.”
Capgemini’s report suggests that personal lines will need to adapt to higher-value contents inside smaller dwellings, especially as seniors express a strong preference to age in place. “You have older people living by themselves with high-value concentrations of assets,” Denninger noted. “That’s a huge risk from an insurance company’s perspective.”
At the same time, the insurance workforce is aging—and younger workers are not arriving in sufficient numbers to replace them. “They all want to be social influencers. They don’t want to be in insurance,” Denninger observed. “How do you respond? You can automate everything or you can overpay. That’s your choice.”
Denninger emphasizes that the traditional growth markets for insurance—such as North America, Western Europe, and China—are entering periods of decline or demographic contraction. While Africa is a long-term growth opportunity, he noted, it won’t be a straightforward matter to simply pivot business to focus on Africa. “That’s going to take a while,” he cautions.
Denninger warns that the demographic path is already set—it’s impossible to make up for births that didn’t happen 20 years ago. “It’s too late to change it now. So, the question is just, how do you make it so that we continue to function effectively and keep serving our purpose?”
To address the shifting landscape, the Capgemini report urges insurers to:
- Rethink product development around modular, lifestyle-based offerings.
- Expand use of AI and predictive analytics for tech-enabled underwriting.
- Prepare for a pivot from personal lines to commercial lines in shrinking populations.
- Design culturally responsive products for immigrant populations, whose values and practices may not align with traditional insurance models.
- Invest in connected technology to support aging policyholders living independently.
“The insurance industry serves an important smoothing function for big sections of the economy,” Denninger says. However, to both continue to fulfill that role and defend its own interests, he adds, it must transform now.
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