Management attributes strong 2025 performance to a ‘flywheel’ model where over 80% of net sales originate from Autoship, providing a resilient, nondiscretionary revenue base.
The pet industry is characterized as stable but non-accelerating, with growth currently driven by volume rather than pricing as pet household formation remains flat.
Strategic focus has shifted toward high-margin health and wellness verticals, with Chewy Vet Care (CVC) identified as the company’s fastest spending-per-customer (NSPAC) compounder.
Operational leverage is being realized through the ramp-up of the automated Houston Fulfillment Center and structural ‘cost to serve’ reductions enabled by a unified data platform.
The launch of ‘Chewy Made’ marks a pivot toward owned-brand consumables to capture a larger share of the $50 billion to $60 billion food market at higher margins.
Management views the emergence of Agentic Commerce as an incremental distribution opportunity rather than a threat due to Chewy’s deep emotional brand trust and recurring delivery model.
Guidance for 2026 assumes 8% to 9% net sales growth, predicated on low single-digit active customer growth and continued NSPAC expansion without relying on price inflation.
Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to expand by approximately 100 basis points, with a greater proportion of gains coming from SG&A leverage rather than gross margin compared to 2025.
The company anticipates a ‘low tens of millions’ benefit from AI efficiencies in 2026, scaling to over $50 million in annualized savings by 2027.
Capital allocation will prioritize increased share repurchase activity relative to 2025, supported by record free cash flow and management’s view of current valuation.
The SmartEquine acquisition is expected to contribute $80 million in revenue for 2026, with a focus on stabilizing the business before scaling it to a high-margin, multi-hundred-million-dollar category.
The transition to a new CFO, Chris Deppe, is intended to provide institutional continuity as the company executes its long-term margin framework.
Gross margin expansion is expected to moderate in 2026 as the company laps the initial high-growth phase of its sponsored ads business and shifts toward off-site advertising.
Management flagged that the SmartEquine business requires ‘a little bit of fixing’ in 2026, meaning it will not be materially contributive to the P&L in the immediate term.
The company remains debt-free with $1.7 billion in total liquidity, providing a buffer against macro volatility while funding the expansion of physical vet clinics.
