Crude Check: Breakout In Sight   

Oil prices saw some moderation last week. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($67.80/barrel) was down 0.4 per cent whereas crude oil futures in the domestic market (₹5,732/barrel) lost 1.7 per cent. Here is the outlook and trade recommendation.

Brent futures ($67.80)

Brent crude oil futures rallied last week to mark a six-month high of $70.72 on Wednesday. But then, it fell on the back of the resistance band of $69-71 to close the week at $67.80. The downside was limited by the 21-day moving average support, which is now at $67.

Overall, the price action shows a positive bias and we expect Brent crude oil futures to break out of $71 soon. Such a move can open the door for a rally to $75.

But if the contract slips below $67, it can find immediate support at $65 with subsequent one at $62.

MCX-Crude oil (₹5,732)

Crude oil futures (March) rallied in the first half of last week. It reached a high of ₹5,986 for the week on Wednesday and then declined to end the week at ₹5,732.

Price action shows that the contract has a support at ₹5,650 and ₹5,500. Until the latter holds true, the bias will remain positive and the probability for a rally will be higher.

An upswing, either from the current level or after a dip to ₹5,500, can surpass the key ₹6,000-mark and hit ₹6,500 in the near term.

On the other hand, if crude oil futures breaks below the support at ₹5,500, the downswing will most likely to extend to ₹5,300. Subsequent support is ₹5,150.

Trade strategy: Last week, we suggested longs on the February contract at ₹5,750. Traders can consider rolling over the longs to March contract. Target and stop-loss for March futures can be ₹6,500 and ₹5,450 respectively.

Published on February 14, 2026