Crude Check: On Breakout Watch  

After witnessing a rally recently, oil prices were down last week. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($68.10/barrel) was down 1.8 per cent whereas crude oil futures in the domestic market (₹5,824/barrel) lost 1.8 per cent. Here is the outlook and trade recommendation:

Brent futures ($68.10)

Brent crude oil futures slipped last week on the back of a resistance band between $69 and $71. A trendline also coincides at this price band, making it a notable barrier.

Although the price declined last week, the price action does not show any signs of a bearish bias. There could be some consolidation at the current market levels or even a minor dip, possibly to $65.

Nevertheless, Brent crude futures can eventually break out of $71 and move further higher. Notable resistance above $71 is at $75. That said, if the contract slips below the support at $65, it might see a deeper decline, probably to $62.

MCX-Crude oil (₹5,824)

Crude oil futures (February) declined last week. It could not sustain above the ₹6,000-mark. Nevertheless, the downside was limited by the 21-day moving average at ₹5,550.

Despite the correction in price, crude oil futures retain the bullish bias. While it is likely to stay flat or see a minor dip in price, possibly to ₹5,600, the contract has the potential to recover and surpass the barrier at ₹6,000 soon.

A breakout of ₹6,000 will open the door for a rally to ₹6,500. A breach of this can lift crude oil futures further to ₹6,900. The positive bias will be negated only if the price falls below the support at ₹5,500.

Trade strategy: Buy crude oil futures at ₹5,750. Target and stop-loss can be ₹6,500 and ₹5,450 respectively.

Published on February 7, 2026