Crude oil prices were down for a second week in a row. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($62.70/barrel) and crude oil futures in the domestic market (₹5,246/barrel) lost 2.8 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively.
Brent futures ($62.70)
Brent crude oil futures attempted to recover in the first half of last week. However, after facing a resistance at $66.50, where both 21- and 50-day moving averages coincide, the contract resumed the downtrend.
The price action shows good downward momentum and the probability for further decline is high. From the current level, Brent futures can fall to $60. Note that the price band of $58-60 is a support band.
Only a clear breakout of $69 can turn the outlook positive.
MCX-Crude oil (₹5,246)
Crude oil futures (October) saw an uptick in price early last week. But then, it faced a barrier at ₹5,600, which capped the upside.
Bears capitalised on the resistance and started to drag the contract lower. Consequently, it breached the support at ₹5,380. This has opened the door for a deeper decline.
From the current level, the nearest base is at ₹5,000. We expect crude oil futures to touch this level.
A breach of ₹5,000 can open the door for a downswing to ₹4,800. But in case the contract starts to recover from the current level of ₹5,246, it will face hurdles at ₹5,500 and ₹5,600. Only a decisive breakout of ₹5,800 can turn the trend positive.
Trade strategy: Last week, we suggested shorting crude oil futures (October) at an average price of ₹5,500. Retain this trade but shift the stop-loss from ₹5,650 to ₹5,500. When the contract falls to ₹5,200, revise the stop-loss to ₹5,400. Exit at ₹5,000.
Published on October 11, 2025
