Crude oil prices rose last week. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($68.30/barrel) was up 2.2 per cent and the crude oil futures on the MCX (₹5,690/barrel) went up 1.6 per cent.
Brent futures ($68.30)
Brent crude oil futures saw a mid-week rally. However, the contract fell short of decisively breaching a minor resistance at $69. Above this, there is a notable barrier at $71. Only a breakout of this level can turn the outlook positive.
In case there is a decline from the current level, it can find support at $66. If this level is invalidated, the outlook can turn weak. In such a scenario, the contract can fall to $62 and $60.
Overall, as it stands, the next leg of trend depends on which of $66 and $71 is breached first.
MCX-Crude oil (₹5,690)
Apart from the rally on Wednesday, the Crude oil futures (Jul) was largely muted through the last week. So the nearest support at ₹5,500 and the immediate resistance at ₹6,000 remain valid.
In case the contract rallies and breaks out of the hurdle at ₹6,000, the near-term outlook can turn positive. Consequently, crude oil futures can rally to ₹6,500. A breakout of this can open the door for a rally to ₹7,000.
On the other hand, if the contract breaches the support at ₹5,500, it can lead to a deeper fall. The nearest support below ₹5,500 is at ₹5,150 and the subsequent one is at ₹4,800.
As it stands, the trend is flat. For the contract to establish a trend, it should breach either ₹5,500 or ₹6,000.
Trade strategy: Since the OPEC+ announced an increased in oil production by 5,48,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August compared to 4,11,000 bpd for July, the price can react negatively this week. So, the likelihood of crude oil slipping below ₹5,500 is higher. If that happens traders can short July futures with a stop-loss at ₹5,850. Target can be ₹4,900.
Published on July 5, 2025
