Crude oil prices moderated over the last week. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($65.90/barrel) was down 1.1 per cent and the crude oil futures on the MCX (₹5,537/barrel) lost a marginal 0.2 per cent.
Brent futures ($65.90)
Brent crude oil futures has lost 8.1 per cent so far this month. Although its price dropped last week, the contract has only closed marginally lower below the support at $66. Thus, we can consider the support at $66 as valid.
That said, there is a resistance ahead at $67.60. So, the path of the next leg of short-term trend depends on the direction of the break of the $66-67.60 range.
Resistance above $67.60 is at $70.70 whereas support below $66 can be spotted at $63.
MCX-Crude oil (₹5,537)
Crude oil futures (Sep) is down 9.1 per cent so far in August. The support at ₹5,400 helped the contract in stopping the downtrend, at least temporarily.
If there is a rebound on the back of this base, the crude oil futures will face a resistance at ₹5,750. Only a breakout of this can turn the outlook positive. In such a case the contract can rally to ₹6,100.
On the other hand, if the support at ₹5,400 is taken out, it can trigger another leg of downtrend, which can potentially drag crude oil futures to ₹5,000.
Broadly, as it stands, the trend remains uncertain as the contract is trading between the key levels of ₹5,400 and ₹5,750.
Trade strategy: Stay out for now. Short crude oil futures (Sep) if it slips below the support at ₹5,400. Target and stop-loss can be ₹5,000 and ₹5,600 respectively.
Published on August 16, 2025
