Wednesday, October 8, 2025

Crude Prices Gain on Concern About Tighter Global Supplies

October WTI crude oil (CLV25) on Monday closed up +0.61 (+0.97%), and October RBOB gasoline (RBV25) closed up +0.0280 (+1.41%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices settled higher on Monday, with gasoline posting a 1-week high.  Monday’s weaker dollar was supportive for energy prices.  Also, concerns over a decline in Russian oil exports are boosting prices after Ukraine stepped up its drone attacks on Russian refineries.  In addition, Monday’s rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high shows confidence in the economic outlook and is supportive of energy demand and crude prices.  Gains in crude were limited after Monday’s weaker-than-expected US and Chinese economic news signaled weakness in energy demand.





Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian refineries and oil infrastructure, which is bullish for crude prices as it curbs Russian crude exports and tightens global oil supplies.  The Kirishi refinery, one of Russia’s biggest refineries that has an annual processing capacity of over 20 million tons, halted crude processing after damage caused by a Ukrainian drone attack on Sunday.  Also, Ukrainian drone attacks have damaged Russian oil infrastructure and crude-exporting hubs along Russia’s Baltic Coast.  Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russian refineries have curbed Russia’s crude-processing runs to 4.98 million bpd in the first three days of September, the lowest monthly average in over 3.25 years.

Monday’s weaker-than-expected global economic news is bearish for energy demand and crude prices.  The US Sep Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions fell -20.6 to a three-month low of -8.7, weaker than expectations of 5.0.  Also, China’s Aug industrial production rose +5.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +5.6% y/y.  In addition, the China Aug surveyed jobless rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to a 6-month high of 5.3%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 5.2%.

A decrease in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices.  Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -7.2% w/w to 67.96 million bbl in the week ended September 12.

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