US stock futures wobbled on Wednesday in the countdown to the end of Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, overwhelmingly expected to usher in the first US interest-rate cut of 2025.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) and the S&P 500 (ES=F) fluctuated along the flat line, after the major US gauges ended Tuesday little changed. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) were also little changed.
China has told its biggest tech companies including Alibaba not to buy the Nvidia (NVDA) AI chip tailor-made for the country, effectively banning tens of thousands of orders, the Financial Times reported. Nvidia shares slipped 1% in premarket trading.
Wall Street is confident the Fed will announce a rate cut on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET. Analysts expect a slowdown in the labor market to convince policymakers to reduce rates, despite an uptick in inflation. Traders are pricing in a 96% chance of a 25 basis-point cut and a 4% chance of a jumbo reduction.
While a rate cut is seen as a done deal, the trajectory of interest rates going forward is less certain. Consequently, investors will also be watching for the release of the Fed’s “dot-plot,” which will offer insight into how many cuts the central bank anticipates for the rest of 2025.
Wall Street will also be eager to hear Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at a press conference following the decision, which begins at 2:30 p.m. ET.
The Fed’s next move comes amid growing concerns over the central bank’s independence. While President Trump has lambasted Powell, he has also started to exert more direct influence over the Fed’s ranks.
The Senate confirmed Trump’s nominee to the Federal Reserve Board in a tight vote on Monday evening, allowing Stephen Miran to vote this week. Before being confirmed, Miran said that he will not resign from his role as a White House advisor during his time at the Fed and instead will take a leave of absence so that he can return to the job later.
At the same time, an appeals court on Monday rejected Trump’s attempt to oust Fed governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud. Cook thus remains on the board and will partake in policy decisions as court proceedings unfold.
On Wednesday, in addition to the Fed decision, investors will receive new data on housing starts as well as earnings from General Mills (GIS) and Cracker Barrel (CBRL). Cracker Barrel made headlines earlier this month following controversy over its now-abandoned logo change.
Looking ahead to the end of the week, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to speak about trade and TikTok on Friday.
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China tech stocks jump to 4-year high amid AI boom
A rapid rally in Chinese tech stocks accelerated on Wednesday as renewed bets on artificial intelligence sent the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH.HK) to its highest level in nearly four years.
The index, which tracks Hong Kong’s tech giants, advanced 4.3% to reach its highest close since November 2021. Baidu (BIDU, 9888.HK) led the gains, up 16%, as shares of Alibaba (BABA, 9988.HK), SMIC (0981.HK), and JD.com (JD, 9618.HK) also jumped.
Bloomberg reports:
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Meeting takeaway: Eric Trump on crypto
I spent some time with first son Eric Trump and one of his crypto partners Asher Genoot of Hut 8 at Trump Tower on Tuesday afternoon — a large chunk of that time was devoted to all things crypto, naturally.
Besides being first son and executive vice president of the Trump Organization, Eric is also the co-founder of the newly public crypto miner American Bitcoin (ABTC). Genoot’s Hut 8 — where he is CEO — provides the infrastructure (power, back office services, etc.) that allows American Bitcoin to mine bitcoin.
I’ll have a story out from this meeting on Yahoo Finance later today. But the one thing I haven’t appreciated enough with the crypto story is how global and institutional it’s becoming. Sure, it’s one thing to read a press release from BlackRock (BLK) saying it’s trying to do more in the space. It’s something else entirely to sit next to ultimate crypto insiders (Trump and Genoot in this case) and hear them walk you through the sovereign wealth funds plowing into various crypto investments.
“Every person I know is trying to buy bitcoin,” Trump told me.
And I believe him.
If you are thinking crypto is still all about retail traders buying with one eye closed hoping another crypto winter is coming, you are missing the narrative that has helped propel the space in 2025…and will likely do so in 2026.
Deutsche Bank on gold: headed to $4,000
Deutsche Bank is staying bullish on gold despite an almost 40% surge this year.
Strategist Michael Hsueh released a $4,000 target for the price of gold in 2026 this morning.
His thesis:
“With gold having reached our 2026 forecast (USD 3,700/oz), we believe that the FX and rates environment remain conducive to further upside, while positioning indicators are not stretched. Although gold has screened as rich versus fair value, we think much of this is due to the strength of official demand, which we expect to persist.”
Asian shares mixed despite tariffs lowering as Wall Street pulls back from record highs
Markets across Asia were mixed overnight Tuesday following a reduction in tariffs on Japanese goods and high expectations about the impact of the Fed’s rate cut on global trade.
AP Finance reports:
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Microsoft CEO-backed startup Groww to become first Indian IPO after relocation out of the US
TechCrunch reports:
Read more here.
